FORECASTING OF HONEY PRODUCTION IN HIMACHAL PRADESH
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Date
2023-09-30
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UHF,NAUNI
Abstract
ABSTRACT
The present investigation was carried out to forecast the honey production in Himachal Pradesh. The secondary data on honey production for 14 years (2008-09 to 2021-22) was taken in study the socio-economy of beekeepers with marketing channels from the sample size of 50 beekeepers. Various linear, non-linear and ARIMA models were used in the study. Regression models were selected on the basis of significant regression coefficients, maximum value of R̅2, Significant t-statistic for the regression coefficients, minimum values of RMSE and Theil’s inequality coefficient (U). Autoregressive integrated moving average models were also fitted where differencing of original values makes the series stationary which gives the value of order d in ARIMA (p, d, q). the order of AR(p) term and MA(q) term were identified using ACF and PACF plots of different series. Power model was found the best as per values of highest R̅2 and the predicted values using power model were nearer to the actual values of honey production. ARIMA (1,1,1) was selected as best fitted model and prediction of honey production was done. By that socio- economic status and marketing channels of honey in Himachal Pradesh were also explored. The average family size of the beekeepers is 5 persons per household i.e., 5-6 person/s households in studied area. The education level of beekeepers varied, with the majority having completed matriculation or undergraduate degrees. Beekeeping methods were divided between full-time and part-time, with a higher proportion using modern methods. The average number of livestock in the sampled households was 1-2, mainly comprising cows. The cow milch were 72.56% out of which 47.90% was from local cow breed. In terms of honey production and income, three groups were identified based on the number of beekeeping boxes. The study found that the second marketing channel, "Producer → Wholesaler → Retailer → Consumer," was the most commonly used by beekeepers. In conclusion, the power model and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) were identified as the best models for estimating honey production in Himachal Pradesh. Out of which ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was better for the prediction. The study also highlighted the effectiveness of the "Producer → Wholesaler → Retailer → Consumer" marketing channel for beekeepers.