PERFORMANCE AND STABILITY ANALYSIS OF MAJOR SPICE EXPORTS AND SPICE PRODUCT EXPORTS FROM INDIA 2857
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Date
2019-07
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jau,junagdh
Abstract
India exports spices from times immemorial and is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of spices in the world. India is traditionally known as the spice bowl of the world. This study is contemplated to address some of the export issues in Indian spices based on the performance during the two time periods viz., Pre NHM (1993-94 to 2004-05) and Post NHM (2005-06 to 2017-18). In this connection, the study on “Performance and Stability Analysis of Spices and Spice products Export from India” was undertaken with the main objectives to assess the growth dimensions, instability, direction of trade and forecasting of quantum of future spices and spice products export to major importing countries.
The secondary data on volume and value of spices and spice products exports from India was collected for 26 years from the year 1993-94 to 2017-2018. It was analyzed using compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, Cuddy Della Vella index and first order Markov chain model.
The overall trend in spices export in quantity was found to be lower in the Period I than in Period II and Period III. It implies that a lower growth rate in quantity (4.75%) of spices were being exported during Period-I, which increased in quantity (9.57%) of spices during Period-II. Highly stable market for spices and its products during Period I were oils & oleoresins and curry powder, in Period II chilli (quantity), mint products (quantity), oils & oleoresins (value) and curry powder (quantity and value). No commodity showed low instability during Period III. (1993-94 to 2017-2018)
Results of TPM revealed that Canada was the stable market for black pepper and curry powder, Vietnam for chilli and cumin, Iran for turmeric, Malaysia for coriander, Saudi Arabia for ginger, China for mint products and oils & oleoresins and during the study period for the year 2002-03 to 2017-18.
The shares of major importers of Indian spices and spice products were estimated using the Transitional Probability Matrices (TPM) and the same were
compared with the actual export shares obtained from the trade data. It was predicted by using TPM that quantum of black pepper export for countries like U.K, Germany, Canada, Japan, other countries and Netherlands were expected to increase while quantity exported to U.S.A was expected to decline from the year 2017-18. For chilli forecasting revealed that in terms of quantity export to Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Nepal would be rise and quantity exported to Indonesia and other countries would be decline. The quantum of turmeric export for countries like other countries were expected to increase while quantity exported to Iran, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands and Bangladesh were expected to decline. For cumin forecasting revealed that in terms of quantity export to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia would be rise and quantity exported to Brazil, Egypt and other countries would be decline. The quantum of coriander export for countries like South Africa, Singapore and other countries were expected to increase while quantity exported to Iran, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Nepal and Australia were expected to decline from the year 2017-18.
For cumin forecasting revealed that in terms of quantity export to Saudi Arabia, Netherlands and other countries would be rise and quantity exported to Bangladesh, Australia and Germany would be decline. The quantum of cardamom export for countries like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Japan and other countries were expected to increase while quantity exported to U.S.A were expected to decline from the year 2017-18. For mint products forecasting revealed that in terms of quantity export to Germany, Singapore, Japan and other countries would be rise and quantity exported to China, Netherlands and France would be decline. The quantum of oils & oleoresins export for countries like Germany, France, Indonesia, South Africa and other countries were expected to increase while quantity exported to China were expected to decline from the year 2017-18. For curry powder forecasting revealed that in terms of quantity export to Australia, Singapore and other countries would be rise and quantity exported to Saudi Arabia and Canada would be decline