Dynamics of Indian agri-trade: A study in context of WTO
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Date
2004-06
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G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand)
Abstract
According to 2001-02 data, agricultural exports and imports comprised 13.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively of the country’s total exports and imports. The agricultural trade composition has been changing overtime. There are also changes in the importance of a commodity in global market, which can be captured by the study on net terms of trade. It is also important to study the impact of WTO on the country’s trade. In this backdrop, this study was carried out with the specific objectives: 1) to analyse the temporal changes in the major exports and imports of Indian agriculture, 2) to analyse the temporal changes in the net terms of trade of India’s major agri-exports, 3) to analyse the impact of WTO on India’s agri-trade, 4) to draw the policy implications from the findings of the study.
The study used 20 years (1981-2000) time-series data related to India’s agri-trade. The percentage ` changes and compound growth rates were worked out for the first objective of the study. Net terms of trade were computed using standard formula for objective two and the third objective was fulfilled by comparing actual export/import data of major commodities with their estimated counterparts for the post –WTO period (1996-2000).
Results of the study indicated a decline in the imports of rice, wheat & meslin and dairy products and an increase in the imports of pulses, vegetable, oil, wool and sugar. The increase in imports was maximum for pulses. Further, there was an increase in exports for meat, rice, coffee, tobacco, feeds and marine products and decrease for tea and cotton. Maximum increase of more than 500 per cent was observed in case of rice. The net terms of trade fro meat, rice, feeds, coffee and marine products, though remained unfavorable during beginning years of the time-series, became highly favourable in the post-WTO period. A negative overall impact of WTO was observed on the imports of dairy products and pulses and positive import on vegetable oil imports. In case of exports, WTO affected favorably most of the commodities except feeds and cotton lint. The policy implications that emerged from the results of the study are that the trend towards self-sufficiency in dairy products, wheat & meslin and rice that the trend towards self-sufficiency in dairy products, wheat and meslin and rice should be sustained and the production of pulses, vegetable oils, wool and sugar should be increased through suitable policies. Rice, meat, feeds, coffee and marine products are the important commodities from view point of exports for which the country has an edge in world market.
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