Performance of WOFOST and DSSAT models in predicting effect of climate change on wheat under different RCP emission pathways
| dc.contributor.advisor | Biswas, Barun | |
| dc.contributor.author | Jatinderpal Singh | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2018-10-14T07:52:59Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2018-10-14T07:52:59Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2018 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The Field experiment to achieve objectives of the present research entitled "Performance of WOFOST and DSSAT models in predicting effect of climate change on wheat under different RCP emission pathways” was conducted at the Research Farm, Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana during rabi season 2016-17. The experiment consisted of three sowing dates (5th November (D1), 20th November (D2) and 5th December (D3)) and two cultivars (PBW¬ 725 and PBW 677). The crop performance, in terms of growth parameters and yield, was highest under D1, followed by D2 and D3. Significantly higher yield attributing characters (tiller number per m-2, ear length (cm), number of grain per ear, grain weight per ear, 1000 grain weight) may be the reason of higher grain yield and harvest index of PBW-725 sown on 5th November as compare to cultivar PBW-677 and later sowing dates. The data generated during the field experiment was used for calibration and validation of the DSSAT and WOFOST model. The calibration and validation showed good agreement between observed and simulated value with lower Normalized RMSE value by both models. DSSAT model underestimate the days to emergence, anthesis, leaf area index but overestimate the days to physiological maturity and WOFOST model underestimated the days to anthesis and physiological maturity and overestimated emergence days and leaf area index. The grain yield was overpredicted by DSSAT model and underpredicted by WOFOST model with NRMSE value less than 3q/ha-1. The high resolution GCM data for projected climate under four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) used to simulate effect of climate change on wheat. The simulation result under projected climate change scenarios showed the decreasing trend for days to anthesis, maturity and grain yield during 2021-80s period. The result showed the highest significant effect on days to anthesis, maturity and grain yield on using RCP8.5 followed by RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP2.6 in different future time periods. The higher temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario may resulted in more grain yield reduction as compare to other scenarios as the physiology of crop adversely affected under high temperature condition. These finding may provide a useful insight into potential effect of climate change on phenology and yield of wheat crop in 21st century and help the researchers in planning appropriate mitigation techniques. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810081060 | |
| dc.keywords | Climate change, RCP scenarios, wheat, WOFOST, DSSAT models. | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.pages | 89 | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana | en_US |
| dc.research.problem | Performance of WOFOST and DSSAT models in predicting effect of climate change on wheat under different RCP emission pathways | en_US |
| dc.sub | Agricultural Meteorology | en_US |
| dc.subject | null | en_US |
| dc.theme | Performance of WOFOST and DSSAT models in predicting effect of climate change on wheat under different RCP emission pathways | en_US |
| dc.these.type | M.Sc | en_US |
| dc.title | Performance of WOFOST and DSSAT models in predicting effect of climate change on wheat under different RCP emission pathways | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |