Impact of Weather Parameters on Winter Rice Productivity in North Bank Plains Zone of Assam
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Date
2021
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AAU, Jorhat
Abstract
Weather parameters play a very significant role in the diversity of
agriculture from region to region. The impact of weather parameters on crop health is
mostly influenced by the variabilities in local or regional climate rather than the global
climate patterns. Assam is well-recognized for its rich genetic diversity of rice. The
climatic condition and geographical location cause greater production of rice over the
past in Assam. Winter rice is the leading rice crop, accounting for a major portion of the
total rice production in Assam as well as in India. In this study, an attempt has been
made to find a better implementable plan for the farmers and policy makers to increase
the winter rice productivity in North Bank Plains Zone (NBPZ) of Assam by analyzing
over thirty years of data. NBPZ is one of the main regions, where most of its livelihood
depends on agriculture. The purpose of the study was to analyze the trend of area,
production and productivity of winter rice and to estimate the impact of weather
parameters in winter rice productivity in NBPZ of Assam. Moreover, the analysis also
revealed inter-district and intra-district variation of weather impacts on winter rice
productivity. Overall thirty years of secondary data were evaluated for the study. To
make a more clear vision, again data were sub-divided into three decadal periods viz.
period I (1988-89 to 1997-98), period II (1998-99 to 2007-08) and period III (2008-09
to 2017-18) respectively. Different statistical tools viz. homogeneity test and change
point detection of the data series over the decadal and overall thirty years were
evaluated. Pettitt‟s test and Buishand‟s test were used to confirm the change point of the
period. The robust non-parametric Mann-Kendall test confirmed the trend pattern of
winter rice productivity in NBPZ along with Sen‟s slope estimate of the rate of change
per year of area, production and productivity. Although, stepwise multiple linear
regression was performed to estimate the effects of climate change on winter rice
productivity. The four weather parameters viz. maximum temperature, minimum
temperature, rainfall and rainy days were considered for weather impact assessment.
These parameters possess the most significant fluctuations in the NBPZ of Assam.
Analyzing over thirty years of the dataset for the aggregate of NBPZ also resulted that
the productivity of winter rice being highly influenced by maximum temperature and
minimum temperature. Although, Period III of Sonitpur and Lakhimpur district, the
number of rainy days were found significant for winter rice productivity. The analysis
over the past decades of NBPZ was to provide essential information to the agricultural
planner and policymakers responsible for designing efficient agricultural policies and
for making significant decisions concerning resources allocation for the development of
the agricultural sector in NBPZ as well as for Assam. The study revealed that the NBPZ
is not limited to studying climate-resilient productivity of winter rice only, there is a
great need for implementation of effective measures as crop production and productivity
has a greater influence on the socio-economic needs of the people.
Keywords: Winter rice, NBPZ, weather parameters, MK-test, Stepwise multiple linear
regression.
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