Agricultural situation in West Bengal: A quantitative analysis for some selected districts

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Department of Agricultural Statistics, F/Ag., Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya
In the present study a set of observation generated on measuring a single variable at equispaced interval of time on Rice and Wheat. In a time series the other factors or components like trend, seasonal variation, etc. are not too much important to us for studying the time series of food production data in our country. Time has shown that nature (rainfall, humidity, temperature, etc.) has great influence on rice and wheat production. Since, these agro-climate-nature factors themselves are more periodic, studies has been made to investigate the periodic nature of the foodgrains production in our country. With the help of past data, the future values are predicted on short term and long term basis by modeling. These future values are important for policy makers to take decision. Time series data for rice and wheat crops are analyzed to forecast future values using ARIMA model. Study has been made to examine the periodic nature of these foodgrains productions starting from pre-independence period. During this time geographical jurisdiction of many a district has been drastically altered. Moreover, the historical partition of nation led to a situation of extreme alteration of population of some of the districts. The nature of periodicity of rice and wheat production from the year 1937 to 1995 has been presented. These too being done for the four districts, viz. Hooghly, Bankura, Birbhum and Burdwan only. ARIMA model has been employed to predict the future values of rice along with its components and wheat production in West Bengal and some selected districts. Appropriate values of p, d and q are found out to fit the best model. After obtaining the model with the past data from 1937 to 2000, the model was refitted for the same data but upto 1995. Then the observed values for the years 1995 to 2000 are compared with the predicted values as obtained from the best chosen ARIMA model.
Statistics, Quantitative analysis, Agricultural situation, West Bengal