Dynamics of prices and arrivals of pegionpea in Karnataka- An econometric analysis
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Date
2009
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UAS, Dharwad
Abstract
Analysis of price and market arrivals overtime is important for formulating a sound
agricultural policy. Fluctuations in market arrivals largely contribute to price instability. Such
an analysis is also useful to farmers in order to decide the optimum time for disposing their
produce to their best advantage. In view of this the present study was undertaken by
collecting monthly prices and arrivals of pigeonpea in major pigeonpea markets of Karnataka
for a period of 20 years (1987-88 to 2007-08). An increasing trend in arrivals and prices was
observed in all the markets, but the quantum of increase varied from one market to another.
Price of pigeonpea was found to be highest during off season and lowest during harvest
season. Since pigeonpea is a Kharif crop, the arrivals were high during December to March.
The higher seasonal indices of prices were observed during August to October during which
the arrivals were found to be low. Uneven cycles were observed both in arrivals and prices in
all the markets. Response of pigeonpea arrivals to prices in all the markets, both in long run
and in shortrun, showed a positive relationship, which implied that as the price of pigeonpea
increased, the arrivals also increased. ARIMA analysis was employed to quantify the
variation in prices and also to forecast pigeonpea prices. The forecasted price in all the
markets showed an increasing value. Analysis of zero order correlation showed that there
existed a strong integration among all the pigeonpea markets. The analysis revealed that, by
storing pigeonpea and selling during off season would help the producer in getting higher
returns. Finally it was recommended to disseminate the forecasted prices to farmers for their
advantage.