EXPORT PERFORMANCE AND DIRECTION OF TRADE OF GUAVA AND ITS PRODUCT FROM INDIA 3737
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Date
2023-08
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JAU JUNAGADH
Abstract
As India occupies top position in total production among guava growing
countries, it is pertinent to recognize potential markets for guava and guava product
exports from India for increasing farmers’ income. The study on “Export Performance
and Direction of Trade of Guava and Its Product from India” was undertaken with the
specific objectives to assess the growth dimensions, instability, sources of growth and
variability, direction of trade, export competitiveness, factors influencing the exports
of major vegetable products and forecasting of future exports. The secondary data on
volume and value of guava and guava product exports from India were collected for
20 years from the year 2002-03 o 2021-22. The data were analyzed using compound
growth rate, coefficient of variation, Cuddy Della Valle index, Hazell’s
decomposition analysis, first order Markov chain model.
Among export volume, value and price the highest compound growth rate was
noticed in export value in both guava (76.59%) and guavas fresh or dried (125.34%)
while the highest instability was observed in export price in case of guava (316.98%)
and guavas fresh or dried (331.94%).
Risk assessment revealed that none of the countries were recorded in high
growth rate and low risk category which is highly preferable category in guava and
guavas fresh or dried requires more concentrated efforts towards shifting them from
less desirable category.
The results of decomposition analysis revealed that for guava exports, the
contribution of change in mean export price (161.65%) in Period I, while the change
in mean export quantity (144.72%) in Period II and for guavas fresh or dried the
contribution of interaction between changes in mean export quantity and mean export
price covariance (278.7%) in Period I, while the change in mean export quantity
(112.54%) in Period II was the highest among the components of change in the
average export value.
The results of Markov chain analysis revealed that Other Countries (Indonesia,
Sudan, Yemen Republc, Kuwait, Tanzania, Malasia, etc.), Saudi Arabia, UK, USA
and UAE were found the most stable market and Netherland remained the most
unstable market for guava export. Nepal was found the most stable market, Kuwait
was the moderately stable market and UAE and Netherland was the most unstable
market in case of guavas fresh or dried.
The predicted shares of major importers of guava and guavas fresh or dried
reveal that, quantity of guava export for countries like Netherland, UAE and Other
Countries are expected to increase while quantity exported to Saudi Arab, USA and
UK are expected to decline from the year 2021-22. On the other hand for guavas fresh
or dried forecasting reveal that quantity of guavas fresh or dried export to UAE and
Other Countries will rise and quantity exported to Nepal, Saudi Arab, Netherland and
Kuwait will decline