DYNAMICS IN AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF GRAM IN BUNDELKHAND REGION (U.P.)
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Date
2023-08-01
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BANDA UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE & TECHNOLOGY, BANDA-210 001, UTTAR PRADESH (INDIA)
Abstract
The research study entitled “Dynamics in Area, Production, and Productivity of
Gram in Bundelkhand Region (U.P.)” had aimed to study growth rate, instability, and
decomposition analysis of gram as well as forecast the production of gram for the
Bundelkhand region and also identify the gap between FHPs & MSPs of gram. During the
last 20 years (2001-2021), the growth rate of area and production of gram were negative in
all districts and also it was negative for Bundelkhand region. But in term of productivity, it
has indicated a positive impact in almost all districts and for this region. During the study
period, Gram was found as the highest instability in Jhansi (29.01), Mahoba (59.87), and
Mahoba (43.97) while the least variability was recorded for the Banda (4.46), Hamirpur
(38.65), and Lalitpur (26.13) in term of area, production, and productivity, respectively. By
the decomposition analysis, it has been anticipated that area was one of the important
factors in the overall development of gram production with a convincing and parallel to
productivity contribution. The gap between FHP and MSP resulted that in most cases FHP
is higher than MSP because higher demand than supplies does not allow the market prices
to fall below MSP. In recent years, market prices ruled higher than MSP. For forecasting,
specifically, the ARIMA time series model was utilized. Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) made forecasting of gram production in Bundelkhand region by using
21 yearly observations. This model went through a battery of diagnostic and investigative
tests so as to explore and examine the efficacy of the model. The model ARIMA (1, 0, 0)
had the lowest normalized value, so this model was chosen. A ten-year ahead production of
gram has been predicted. According to observations, they indicate a declining trend in
gram production. The present study showed negative growth in area, production and
productivity of gram in the Bundelkhand region noticed because of shift in area from these
crops to other competitive crops. Thus, there is a need to give more emphasis on concerted
research efforts, technological aspects as well as policy aspects (extension services and
more remunerative prices) and also suggest appropriate remedial measures for correcting
this undesired trend so that increase in area, production, and productivity of gram.
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ANKIT KUMAR MAURYA {2023} DYNAMICS IN AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF GRAM IN BUNDELKHAND REGION (U.P.), M.Sc. (Ag.), BANDA UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE & TECHNOLOGY, BANDA-210 001, UTTAR PRADESH (INDIA)