ANALYSIS OF RISK AND VULNERABILITY OF RURAL FARM HOUSEHOLDS TO NATURAL DISASTERS IN RAJASTHAN
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Date
2018
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Publisher
ICAR-NDRI, KARNAL
Abstract
Agriculture sector is the backbone of India in terms of food supply and employment which is
subjected to frequent risks that are in turn very pervasive and complex in nature. Sources of risk
could be many including natural disasters (like droughts and floods). Often the level of severity of
risks vary according to different farm households, farming systems, geographical location, weather
conditions, supporting government policies and farm types etc. Therefore, from policy perspective
it is important to look into the extent of production risk and how the natural disasters are affecting
them. Besides the production, natural disasters can also cause the risk in consumption in the form
of reduced consumption and increased malnourishment. It is further necessary the ex-ante
assessment of those people who are food secure but vulnerable and food-insecure but nonvulnerable
could be made. Other than this it is also important to take into notice the perception of
local farmers regarding various types of risk they face and their frequency. Checking the efficacy
of ongoing risk coping mechanisms is also crucial from policy perspectives. Keeping these
considerations in mind, the present study was undertaken in the state of Rajasthan both at micro
and macro level. The study was analyzed based on district level area, production, productivity of
major crops and rainfall data for the period from 1980 to latest (2013). Data on livestock
population, production and productivity at state level was also used for the years of 1985 to 2016.
Instability indices, rainfall anomaly, year on year percentage change and correlation coefficients
were used to analyze the extent of instability in yield and prices and their inter-linkages with
natural disasters was established. National Sample Survey Office’s unit record data (consumption
expenditure for 66th round (2009-10) and 68th round (2011-12)) was used to estimate food and
nutritional insecurity in year of drought. The year of 2009-10 was drought year for Rajasthan and
2011-12 was normal year. The primary data was collected for agricultural year of 2016-17 from
360 selected households with the help of pre-defined and pilot tested schedule through personal
interview in districts of Bikaner and Kota. Risk perception index was an added dimension. Also,
household specific utilization of risk management option was carried out with the help of logit
regression. Multinomial ordered logit was used to see the efficacy of crop-insurance scheme as a
risk management option. There was a wide variation in rainfall anomaly across the districts of
Rajasthan. During 1980s three years viz. 1980, 1981 and 1987 were years of extreme droughts
while during 1990s; 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002 were extreme drought years. Production
instabilities were more in kharif crops as compare to rabi crops. In general, coarse cereal and
pulses displayed highest production instability followed by super cereals and oilseeds. Production
instability was mainly due to instabilities in yield rather than instability in area. Price instabilities
were very less that indicates an overall stability in prices for the period of 36 years. However
compound annual growth (CAGR) rate of prices for this period was less than 1% that indicates
substantial instabilities. Vulnerability to poverty in Rajasthan was 12.4% in normal year that
increased to 20% in drought year. The corresponding poverty head count ratio was 22.3% in
normal year and 33.5% in drought year. Vulnerability to poverty of households engaged in
agriculture was lower as compare to the households that were engaged in non-agricultural
activities. It was highest among no-land rural farm households followed by marginal & small land
(upto2 ha) and medium land households. Head-count poverty in normal year was merely 22.3%
while incidence of malnourishment in that year was more than doubled (54.3%). Hailstorm
(44.5%) followed by drought (43.4%) and pest and disease of livestock (40.1%) were the most
realized risks during past ten years. Surprisingly around 90% of sample households in Bikaner
have never realized the incidences of heat waves. However the incidences of heat waves were
completely absent in Kota perhaps due to geographical location. Also, around 76.7% people in
Kota never realized the incidence of drought during past 10 years. A majority household indicated
that pest/diseases of crops and livestock are the risks perceived by them in various intensities. Risk
perception in Bikaner was mainly due to unawareness about the available technology while in
Kota it was due to inaccessibility to same. Besides formal compensation method, farmers adopt
multiple informal ways to avoid the income risk that includes inter-temporal consumption
smoothing and ex-ante risk response measures. The formal risk aversion mechanism was of little
use in minimizing income risk in case of yield loss. Regional specific plans must be built up to
enhance adaptive capacities of the region. Additionally, drought resistant crops like pulses and
oilseeds that were most stable must be promoted in the region. Affluent price policies are need of
the hour so that sufficient encouragement can be provided to the farmers to grow the selected
income enhancing crops. The stable production of meat, milk and other livestock products can act
as cushion in case of natural disasters and hence must be prime focus of policy formulation in
event of natural disasters. Irrigation alone is not sufficient to decrease vulnerability to poverty in
the event of extreme events and so government programs should be designed more effectively
through proper and inclusive policy intervention. Asset base of the households is of less concern
and skill development and capacity building can be important interventions in the region.
Public distribution and National Food Security Mission (NFSM) will be of no use until along with
food distribution, nutritional management is also taken care of. So awareness about wholesome
diet and balance nutriton is the need of the time. Inclusive policy initiatives should be formed to
reduce the negative influence of economic risks on the marginal and small farmers. Socially and
economically deprived households in general had lower utilization of various risk management
strategies and remains under risk. It is important that macro level policy toward better social
protection should be designed and implemented considering equity parameter of the households.
Increasing the social capital for farmers and reducing the frangibility of farmers to meet the market
economy so as to strengthen the ability of farmers to cope with the risk of income fluctuations
would provide additional support.