STATISTICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF SELECTED OILSEEDS IN ANDHRA PRADESH
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Date
2021-09-08
Authors
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Publisher
Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Guntur
Abstract
The Present study entitled “Statistical models for prediction of area, production
and productivity of selected oilseeds in Andhra Pradesh” has been undertaken to fit
different trend equations like linear, non-linear and time series models for selected oilseeds
like Groundnut, Niger, Sesame and Castor and also made the future forecast up to 2022-23
AD. The study was carried out for Andhra Pradesh state using time series data from
1965-66 to 2017-18.
For forecasting purpose ten linear and non-linear growth models viz., linear,
logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, compound, power, s-curve, growth and exponential
and time series models like ARIMA were fitted to the area, production and productivity of
selected oilseed crops. The best-fitted model for future projection was chosen based upon
highest coefficient of determination (R2) with least RMSE and MAPE values.
The study revealed that the area, production and productivity of Groundnut marked
fluctuating increasing and decreasing trend during the study period 1965-66 to 2017-18;
for the forecasted period i.e. up to 2022-23 area and production showed decreasing trend,
productivity increasing trend . In Niger there was decreasing trend in area and production
whereas productivity showed an increasing trend; the forecasts exhibited an increasing
trend in area and production, slightly increasing trend in productivity. The Sesame crop
revealed that area and production marked decreasing trend but productivity slightly
fluctuating increasing and decreasing trend; forecasts of area, production and productivity
depict increasing trend. Whereas Castor crop area and productivity showed decreasing
trend and production showed fluctuating increasingand decreasing trend during the study
period; forecasts exhibited that area as decreasing trend but production and productivity
increasing trend.
Description
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF
AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY
OF SELECTED OILSEEDS IN
ANDHRA PRADESH