Production and export performance of maize: a study of India.
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Date
2018-06
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G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand)
Abstract
Maize globally known as queen of cereals is one of the most important cereals crops of the world in general, third most important crop after rice and wheat in India in particular. The present study tried to analyse the performance and determinants of maize production and exports from India with the following objectives; i. To estimate the growth and instability in area, production and productivity of maize, ii. To work out the costs of and returns from maize production across farm size groups, iii. To examine the growth pattern, instability, trade direction and potential of maize exports from India, and iv.To identify the determinants involved in production and exports of maize. Growth (CAGR) and instability are estimated for pre as well as post WTO period separately as well as for whole period from 1981 to 2016 using exponential growth function for area, production, productivity and export of maize. Cost and returns for maize production worked out by employing CACP cost concepts, Trade direction by Markov-chain analysis which employs transition probability matrix and relative comparative advantage (RCA) index for trade potential for the period from 2001-2016, determinants have been worked out by log linear regression for the post WTO period i.e. from 1996-97 to 2015-16, Augmented-Ducky Fuller test is use for checking stationarity of time series data for determinants of production and export. As Karnataka is the highest maize producing state in India multistage stratified random sampling is used to select 160 farmers across different farm size groups to collect primary data to assess cost and returns across farm size groups. The significant higher positive growth rates in area, production and productivity of maize are found during post-WTO period in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. India registered significant growth rate in area, production and productivity during post WTO as well as overall period except in case of area in pre WTO period. In overall, the highest growth rate in area, production and productivity of maize has found in Tamil Nadu among the major maize producing states. The instability analysis reveals that there is not much fluctuation in time series data with respect to area, production and productivity of maize at country level, while Tamil Nadu is the only state to show high instability with respect to production and productivity of maize. In overall, cost of cultivation (Cost C3) of maize in Tumkur and Davanagere districts as well as state of Karnataka has been found to be Rs. 48449, Rs. 52724 and Rs. 50714 per hectare, respectively, during 2017. The cost of cultivation has been found to be the highest at large farms and lowest at marginal farms. The net returns per hectare over Cost A1 found positive across farm levels in selected districts, while net returns over Cost C3 been negative. Despite of the fact that the returns obtained by the maize growers covering all explicit costs as well as part of implicit costs. Because of its wider adaptability to climatic conditions, prevail over there, maize cultivation continues in the farming business.In post WTO period, the export quantity, value and unit value grew significantly at the rate of 38.74, 42.12 and 2.43 per cent per annum, respectively but remained in the category of high instability in quantity as well as value. Markov chain analysis reveals that Nepal exhibited a strong preference for Indian maize, followed by Bangladesh. It is found from RCA index that India maize trade found inefficient in the years 2001 to 2003, 2005 to 2006 and 2015 to 2016. All the possible factors such as area sown, irrigated area under maize, average rainfall, human labour, animal labour and MSP, affected the maize production positively in India except fertilizers which has negative relationship. The variable area sown has found positive and significantly affecting the maize production in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Irrigated area is found to be key factor in increasing maize production in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu. Rainfall played major role in determining maize production for the states of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Variables such as export price which affect the export inversely and lagged production having positive direct effect emerged as important factors determining maize export from India. As rainfall is one of the major factor affecting maize production as well as use of low quality seeds by farmers specially marginal and small, the study suggests to enhance and to stabilise the production through increased productivity by providing technical know -how and other supporting measures. Diversification of geographical concentration can be achieved by export promotion policies which should be in line with consistent growth of maize exports with low instability.
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