MARKET INTEGRATION AND PRICE FORECASTING OF MANGO: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
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Date
2016
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Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi
Abstract
The study was conducted in Uttar Pradesh as the state ranks first position in the production of mango. In the state there were five major markets of mango, out of five two major markets viz. Lucknow and Varanasi markets were selected on the basis of highest arrivals of mango. The data regarding prices of mango and prices of other fruits in selected markets were collected from the particular APMC markets. For analysing the co-integration between domestic market and international market price, the data regarding international price were collected from the FAO, due to unavailability of data from the mango market of any other country, the export prices were considered to be the international prices. Being seasonal nature of mango the arrival of fruit in the markets of Uttar Pradesh was in the months from March to August. So, the secondary data for 21 years from 1993-94 to 2014-15 were collected only for the six months of peak season of mango. Also the data for observing the effect of prices of other fruits collected for the same period. There were many more fruits in the market but out of many only four fruits were to be selected on the basis of their arrivals in the particular peak season of mango. For achieving the above objectives, the data were analysed by using the seasonal index for movement of mango price, Box and Jenkins methodology (ARIMA) for price forecasting, Johansen’s co-integration test for long term relationship between markets and multiple linear regression model for observing the factors affecting the price of mango.
The high volatility in high value crops like mango is relatively more prominent and important. Variability in arrival of mango was much more than the prices in both the selected markets. The price of mango shows fluctuating trend not only year to year but also month to month within the same year. There is a need to develop a smooth and proper supply chain management to reduce the variability in arrival and prices. The demand for high value commodity is always increasing and due to seasonality of the products the prices are always fluctuating. It appears that when the seasonal index of arrivals of mango was more during the period of May to July, the seasonal index of prices was somewhat low as compared to other months. On the other side when the seasonal index of arrivals of mango was low, the price index of mango was at the high level. Price of mango was affected by the other substitute fruits in both the major markets of Uttar Pradesh. In both the markets pomegranate price and sweet orange price found to be significant and affected positively. But the price of apple in Lucknow market and prices of Banana in Varanasi market was found to be non significant. It can also confirmed from the correction coefficients of corresponding fruit in a particular market was found to be non significant. In Varanasi market the prices of mango were affected by higher nutritive and relatively more expensive than other fruits i.e. apple, pomegranate and sweet orange because it may be due to the medicinally preferred by patients in Varanasi as having the good medical facility in the city.
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Pardhi, R. M. 2016. Market Integration and Price Forecasting of Mango: An Empirical Analysis. Ph. D. Thesis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, BHU, Varanasi.