Market Dynamics and price Behaviour of Groundnut in North Karnataka Groundnut in North Karnataka - an Econometric Approach
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Date
2013
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Publisher
UAS, Dharwad
Abstract
The prices of most agricultural commodities are inherently susceptible to violent
fluctuations, the economic consequences of which are dire. The present study was devoted to
an analysis of the dynamics of market fluctuations in the arrivals and prices of groundnut in
five different markets of North Karnataka viz., Bellary, Mundargi, Gadag, Raichur and
Dharwad. Both secondary and primary data was utilized to fulfill the objectives. A
multiplicative model of time series was used to analyze arrivals and prices for markets.
Raichur and Dharwad markets showed increasing trend both in arrivals and prices. Seasonal
indices of arrivals and prices of groundnut in selected markets revealed that the arrivals were
at its peak during October-December. The highest arrival index was noticed in Raichur
market in the month of October (443.18). Whereas lowest arrival index was noticed in Gadag
market in February month (10.69). The cyclical trend in selected markets showed that there
were no constant period between cycles in both arrivals and prices. In long run, Raichur
market showed highest coefficient of multiple determination (R²) value of 0.68. Whereas,
lowest coefficient of multiple determination (R²) value of 0.15 was observed in both Gadag
and Dharwad market. ARIMA model was employed to forecast the prices of groundnut in
selected markets. Among five markets, the price forecast model for Mundargi market (1,1,1),
(1,1,1) was found to be best models. There existed high market integration between Mundargi
and Bellary markets. To analyze the marketing problems in groundnut primary data were
collected from farmers and market functionaries. About 84 per cent of problem faced in
competition of oil millers in the market intermediaries and about 30 percent of problem in
untimely tendering.