SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF TRANSFORMING ASSAM AGRICULTURE
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Date
2017-07
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AAU, Jorhat
Abstract
The study seeks to explore spatio-temporal analysis of agricultural sector in Assam with specific objectives to analyze agricultural scenario over the pre and post liberalization periods, contribution of different factors influencing agricultural growth and development of the state over the years, instability and regional disparity in terms of agricultural development across the agro-climatic zones and finally put forward strategic model for prospective agricultural transformation. The study has covered entire Assam with a reference period of four decades (1975-76 to 2014-15). Data used for the study were entirely secondary and collected from various published and unpublished sources of government departments, agencies and institutions.
The results revealed slow pace of agricultural growth from 2.26 to 1.96 per cent accompanied by marginal increase in the yield of two of the major crops viz., total rice- from 1.71 to 2.22 per cent and pulses from -0.18 to 0.9 per cent over the pre and post liberalization periods. However, the yield growth has decreased in case of rapeseed & mustard, from 1.44 to 1.00 per cent, jute from 1.80 to 0.63 per cent, wheat from 0.43 to 0.28 per cent, potato from 2.02 to -0.72 per cent and sugarcane from 0.92 to -0.48 per cent over the pre and post liberalization periods. Even after several plans and schemes, Assam agriculture has been confronted with ever declining small and fragmented operational holdings with average size of holding from 1.47 ha as per 1970-71census to 1.1 ha as per 2010-11 census. Besides, the state dealt with small amount of fertilizer consumption per hectare and a marginal role of irrigation over the study period. Nevertheless, during the recent decade (2004-05 to 2014-15), the scenario was found to be improved with increased area under high yielding varieties, availability of farm power per hectare, increased agricultural credit flow and also increase in yield of the major crops like, rice, rapeseed and mustard, pulses, potato, wheat etc. The overall cropping pattern was found to be shifting marginally towards horticultural crops during the last two decades.
Cropping intensity and share of HYV to total rice area had highly significant impact on Gross State Domestic Product of Agriculture (GSDPA) during pre liberalization period. During post liberalization period, effectiveness of share of horticulture to total cropped area had substantially increased; it was due to the shift towards high valued horticultural crops that has been gaining momentum over the years. Even though cropping intensity had been increasing over time, no statistically significant impact was found on agricultural growth during post liberalization period. It implies that emphasis must be put towards double or triple cropping to utilize the land resource at an optimum level. Fertilizer consumption did not show any significant impact on agricultural growth over the years. It is noteworthy that area under irrigation was negatively associated with GSDPA. This was due to the declining trend of irrigation utilization ratio over the four decades. Capital investment played vital role in agricultural development all the way through the study period.
On account of rainfall variability and occasional occurrence of flood, the state has been confronted with considerable instability in area, production and yield of agricultural crops over the years. Majority of crops showed less instability during the post liberalization period as compared to pre liberalization period. Intra period instability for majority of crops was found below 25 per cent. Moreover, the state has also been confronted with regional disparity across the agro-climatic zones. As indicated by composite agricultural development index (2010-11 to 2014-15), Central Brahmaputra Valley Zone was ranked first, followed by Lower Brahmaputra Valley Zone, Upper Brahmaputra Valley Zone, North Bank Plain Zone, Barak Valley Zone and Hill Zone.
Finally, based on the outcomes of the study, schematic strategic model has been suggested for balanced agricultural growth and development. It is imperative to give more emphasis on infrastructure development, timely availability of modern inputs, frequent monitoring and evaluation of existing schemes and programmes, region and crop specific policies, efficient extension mechanism which would lead to balanced agricultural growth and development in the state for prospective agricultural transformation.
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