Behaviour of spot and futures prices of agricultural commodities vis-à-vis policy impact
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UASD
Abstract
Futures prices for agricultural commodities are the main source for price determination in
many spot markets. Futures markets help in price discovery, provide price risk management and bring
about spatial and temporal integration of markets. Wheat, sugarcane, chana and turmeric are the
important cereal, commercial and pulse crops of our country. Variation in the prices of these
commodities will have adverse impact on both producers and consumers. The study is a modest
attempt to analyse the growth in production of wheat, sugar, chana and turmeric and examines the
behaviour of spot and futures prices of these commodities. The study also endeavors to know the
interrelationship among production, spot and futures prices and impact of volume of transactions on
futures prices of these commodities. Besides, an attempt is made to know the impact of futures ban
on spot prices of these commodities. The growth in production was analysed using growth rate
analysis and the results indicated that the production was highly significant in the selected agricultural
commodities. The instability in spot and futures prices was highest in turmeric when compared to the
remaining three commodities considered for the study (wheat, sugar and chana). The strong
interdependence between spot and futures prices in wheat, sugar, chana and turmeric reveals that
the futures prices provide transparency for spot price determination rather than causing rise in spot
prices. The volume of transaction of selected agricultural commodities did not have much influence on
their respective futures prices. The impact of policy intervention on a time series was assessed by
chow test which showed that there was a structural break in daily spot prices before and during
futures ban of wheat, sugar and chana.
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