Assessing drought and length of growing period under current and future climate scenario in Punjab using geospatial technology
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Date
2021
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Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana
Abstract
The study entitled, "Assessing drought and length of growing period under current and future
climate scenario in Punjab using geospatial technology” was conducted at the Department of
Climate Change and Agril. Meteorology, PAU, Ludhiana. Long term (1971-2020) rainfall
data, mid-century (2040-2060) and end-century (2075-2095) under four different climate
change scenarios were collected to calculate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and
Length of Growing Period (LGP). In addition to this, remote sensing satellite based indices
Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) were calculated
from satellite data. The result concluded that annual SPI in the north-east region increased
from first (1971-1980) to third (1991-2000) and decreased thereafter whereas during kharif
season, significant increase in SPI was observed during 1981-1990 in central region and
significant increase was observed during the period 1971-2020. Decade 2001-2010
experienced worst drought during rabi season. Significant increase in annual SPI during midcentury
has been experienced in all the three RCPs 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 except RCP 2.6 which
showed significant decrease @ -0.06/year in north-east region. During kharif season, all four
RCPs showed significant increase in SPI. However, during rabi season, RCP 2.6 showed
significant decrease @ -0.09/year in SPI in north-east region and significant decrease @
-0.02/year and @ -0.07/year under RCP 4.5 and 6.0, respectively, in central region. No
significant change was observed in LGP in north-east and central region but in south-west
region, significant increase has been observed @ 0.42/year during the period 1971-2020. LGP
is likely to decrease under RCP 2.6 during mid-century @1.08/year in north-east region and
also decrease under RCP 4.5 during end-century @ 0.66/year in south-west region. LSWI and
VCI was calculated for September month for ten years (2011-2020) indicated that LSWI was
almost same throughout the study period, which might be due to sufficient irrigation and soil
moisture availability whereas VCI was observed to be fluctuating which may be due to
variability in the rainfall. The results of the study indicated that crop condition as well as soil
moisture availability was good even during the years of moisture deficit, thus highlighting
severe pressure on water resources in the region.
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Citation
Bopche, Usaka (2021). Assessing drought and length of growing period under current and future climate scenario in Punjab using geospatial technology (Unpublished M.Sc. thesis). Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, India.