Adaptation to climate change: an economic study of cereal crops in Eastern Himalaya
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Date
2016-11
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College of Post Graduate Studies in Agricultural Sciences, CAU-Imphal, Umiam
Abstract
The farmers adopt certain strategies to adapt the climate change in Eastern Himalaya (EH). The present study analyzed the climatic variability, identified the strategies adapted by the cereal growers, estimated the costs and benefits involved and reviewed the policy initiatives on climate change in Manipur and Sikkim. A sample of total 120 cereal farmers was selected from Senapati of Manipur and East Sikkim of Sikkim using multistage random sampling. Thirty-nine years (1975-2013) rainfall and temperature data were analyzed to study the climatic variability. Tobit model was used to identify the factors affecting adaptation and Multinomial Logit model was employed to determine the factors affecting the choices of adaptation strategies. Partial budgeting technique was used to estimate the cost and benefit of adaptation strategies. The annual normal rainfall has declined in Manipur and Sikkim and in most of the years the monsoon has set in within the first week of June during 1975-2013. The increasing linear trends in maximum temperature in Manipur and minimum temperature in Sikkim are siginificant. The perception of the sample farmers about the arrival of monsoon rainfall and the change in minimum temperature contradicted with the analyzed historical findings. The study reveals that the rice growers were the adapters. The widely adopted strategies were the change in transplanting time (Strategy 1) and change in transplanting as well as harvesting time (Strategy 2). Area under rice cultivation, decline in food availability and support from Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK) positively influenced the farmers’ decision to adapt, whereas housing structure negatively influenced the same. The choice of Strategy 1 was found to be positively influenced by the area under rice cultivation and decline in rice productivity and negatively influenced by the number of cattle, support from State Agricultural Department and percentage of irrigated area. The choice of Strategy 2 was positively influenced by the area under rice cultivation and gender of the farmers. The costs of rice cultivation have increased by Rs.8505.63/ha and Rs.6374.29/ha which led to realization of net benefits of Rs.1329.30/ha and Rs.1568.67/ha only in case of Strategy 1 and Strategy 2, respectively. State Action Plan on Climate Change of Manipur was prepared in line with the National Action Plan on Climate Change and did not come up with any specific objective whereas, that of Sikkim priority was given on reviving the dried water bodies in the state. The study concludes that the change in climate is evident, but adaptation strategies were traditional and autonomous; the net benefit of adaptation was meager. Hence, construction of water harvesting structure and minor irrigation facilities should be emphasized by the State Governments. States should be allowed to take independent decision to identify and address its prioritized issues related to climate change.
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Keywords
Production factors, Economic analysis