FORECASTING MAJOR COARSE CEREALS PRICES OF KARNATAKA USING TIME SERIES AND ANN MODELS
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Date
2022-08-17
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guntur
Abstract
Coarse cereals are known for nutria-rich content and having characteristics like drought tolerance, photo-insensitivity and resilient to climate change etc. Hence, they form the backbone of dryland agriculture. Coarse cereals include jowar, pearl millet, barley, small millets, maize and ragi. At the turn of millennium, demand for coarse cereals was declining due to changes in food habits and uncertainty of prices in agricultural markets. Farmers are generally believed to be more aware of prices. The decisions of farmers concerning time and place of sale for their farm produce are motivated by price levels. Their decisions affect the pace of arrivals and prices in different markets. Hence, forecasting these prices has a significant role.
This study investigates the secular trend, seasonal indices, and forecasting the prices of coarse cereals. Three major markets for each crop, viz., Ballari, Bangalore and Koppal for bajra and jowar, and Arsikere, Bangalore and Hassan markets for maize and ragi, are considered for this study. The data for the analytical model was mainly from secondary sources. Polynomial curve fitting (least square method) and seasonal indices (ratio to moving average method) were used to analyze the trend and seasonal components of price series. The ANN and ARIMA models were used to forecast the prices of coarse cereals in selected markets of Karnataka.
The findings reveal that prices of coarse cereals have registered a significant increase in trend over the period for all the markets. All the selected markets for coarse cereals have shown a seasonal pattern except for jowar prices in Ballari and ragi prices in Arsikere and Hassan markets. The best fit ANN and ARIMA models were used to forecast the prices of coarse cereals in all the above markets for a duration of twelve
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months through a lagged series. Based on the percentage of forecast error, an ideal model was proposed among the ANN and ARIMA models for each selected market. However, ANN models outperform ARIMA in all selected markets except for ragi prices in the Bangalore market where ARIMA outperforms.
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FORECASTING MAJOR COARSE CEREALS PRICES OF KARNATAKA USING TIME SERIES AND ANN MODELS