AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF HECTAREAGE PREDICTION MODELS OF IMPORTANT RABI CROPS OF GUJARAT STATE
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Date
2012-04
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Abstract
The crop hectareage has many determinants. The
present investigation on hectareage response of important rabi
crops has been carried out using Nerlov’s model. The period wise
growth rates and instability index and gentle attempt to identify
the practical utility of ARIMA model in hectareage response for
different regions of Gujarat State and Gujarat as a whole using
secondary data of area, production, productivity and price from
1980-81 to 2007-08. Region wise and Gujarat as a whole,
different single equation models and simultaneous equation
models tried for selected rabi crops. The recommended models
has been selected on the basis of adjusted coefficient of multiple
determination.
Price factors like lagged price and expected price
played an important role in hectareage change for wheat crop in
most of the regions, while, non-price factors like hectareage of
competing crop and expected yield little influenced the
hectareage of wheat crop. The negative and significant growth rate
was found in period 1980-81 to 1989-90 for almost all the regions,
while it was found positive and significant for almost all the regions in
period 1990-91 to 1999-00 and 2000-01 to 2007-08. An ARIMA (0,
1, 1) was found the most representative model for the hectareage
prediction for wheat.
Price risk and return risk showed negative impact on
gram hectareage in most of the regions of the state, which shows
that the farmers of the state are risk averter. The negative and
significant growth rate was found in period 1980-81 to 1989-90
for almost all the regions, while it was found positive and highly
significant for almost all the regions in period 2000-01 to 2007-
08. An ARIMA (0, 1, 0) model was the most representative model
for the prediction of hectareage of gram.
The hectareage of competing crop influenced
positively to mustard hectareage in all the regions except
Saurashtra region. Lagged hectareage also influenced the
current hectareage of mustard crop in most of the regions. The
growth rate of area of mustard crop was found negative and
significant in period 1990-91 to 1999-00 for almost all the
regions and was found positive and significant in period 2000-01
to 2007-08 for almost all the regions. An ARIMA (0, 1, 0) model
was found most representative model for the hectareage of
mustard.
Expected price, expected yield, lagged relative price
and lagged gross return had influenced negatively to cumin
hectareage in most of the regions and state as a whole. The
cumin growers of Middle Gujarat are price risk taker, while, the
cumin growers of the state as a whole are return risk averter.
The negative and significant growth rate was found in period
1980-81 to 1989-90 for Saurashtra region and state as a whole.
It was found positive and highly significant for almost all the
regions in period 2000-01 to 2007-08. An ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model
was appropriate for the prediction of hectareage of cu
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Keywords
INVESTIGATION OF HECTAREAGE PREDICTION