STUDY OF PRICE BEHAVIOUR OF SOYBEAN IN MAHARASHTRA STATE
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Date
2018
Authors
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Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University
Abstract
The present study entitled “Study of price behaviour of soybean in
Maharashtra state” was undertaken to study the price trends of soybean,
price forecasts and to estimate price volatility. The study was conducted in
major soybean markets of Maharashtra state. Four markets i.e., Latur,
Khamgaon, Hinganghat and Nagpur were selected based on maximum
arrivals. The data pertained to the period from 2001-02 to 2017-18.
Apart from using simple linear trend method, twelve months ratio to
moving average method, ARIMA, ANN, ARCH and GARCH models were
also used.
There was an increasing trend in the prices of soybean in all the
selected markets and were found to be highly significant at 1 per cent level
of significance. The annual increase in prices of soybean was found to be
highest in Latur market (Rs.14.49 /qtl), whereas lowest in Higanghat
market (Rs.12.85 /qtl). In all these markets, the contribution of independent
variable time to the change in prices was to the tune of 73 per cent to 77 per
cent. There was not much variation in the extent of increase in prices of
soybean in the selected markets.
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In all the selected markets, seasonal variation in prices were
observed. In Latur market the highest seasonal index was found in May
(109.99), whereas lowest seasonal index was recorded in October with
84.89. In Khamgaon market highest seasonal index was found in May
(108.63), whereas minimum seasonal index was recorded in October with
89.69. In Nagpur market highest seasonal index in May (108.46), whereas
lowest seasonal index was recorded in October with 88.44. In Higanghat
market highest seasonal index was found in June (106.32), whereas lowest
seasonal index was recorded in October with 92.01. In all the markets the
seasonal indices were highest in May and lowest in the month of October.
It is inferred from the results of cyclical variations, that there were
no cyclical variations of soybean prices in the selected soybean markets of
Maharashtra.
Irregular fluctuations did not exhibit any definite periodicity in their
occurrence in Latur, Khamgaon, Nagpur and Higanghat soybean markets.
The results of ARIMA model for soybean in selected markets of
Maharashtra indicated that the prices predicted from April to
September,2018 would be ranging from Rs.3,680 to Rs.3,744 in Latur
market, Rs.3,433 to Rs.3,490 in Khamgaon market, Rs.3,538 to Rs.3,604 in
Nagpur market and Rs.3,320 to Rs.3,414 in Higanghat market.
With respect to price volatility, the results revealed that there was
high volatility in Nagpur and Higanghat markets for soybean prices as the
sum of Alpha and Beta values were 0.99 next followed by Latur market
(α+β = 0.92) and Khamgaon market (α+β = 0.88) during the period from
2002-03 to 2017-18.
Description
D5680
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