Effect of climate change on productivity of wheat and possible mitigation strategies using Ceres-Wheat Model in foot hills of western himalayas
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Date
2010-07
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G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand)
Abstract
The present study was conducted at the Norman E. Borlaug Crop Research Centre of G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar to quantify the effect of climate change on productivity of wheat and possible mitigation strategies using CERES-wheat model in foot hills of Western Himalayas during 2007-08 and 2008-09. Model performance was excellent in 2007-08 as compared to 2008-09. The experiment was laid out in split plot design (SPD) with three dates of sowing i.e. Nov. 20, Dec. 15 and January 09 and two varieties viz. PBW-343 and WH-542. Variety PBW-343 was found to yield more besides its attributes than WH-542 with crop sown on 20th November over rest of the sowing dates in both the years. The performance of CERES-wheat (DASST 4.5) model was well with crop sown on 15th December than 20th November and 09th January sowing during the period of study for almost all the crop characters. Predicted values through CERES-wheat model were very close to the observed for the variety PBW-343 than WH-542. All crop characters in terms of days to attain anthesis and physiological maturity, product weight, unit product weight, product harvest index and vegetative weight decreased as the temperature (i.e. Tmax, Tmin and Tmean) increased either by 1, 2 or 30C and vice-versa across sowing dates and varieties. Increasing trends were found for all the crop characters as radiation increased from 1 to 3 MJ/m2/d (except days to attain anthesis and physiological maturity) and vice versa among sowing dates and varieties. The model was found to be more sensitive to solar radiation either increasing or decreasing it than mean temperature. Product weight, product harvest index and vegetative weight increased with all levels of projected CO2 concentration (i.e. 414, 522 and 682ppm in 2020s. 2050s and 2080s, respectively) among the dates of sowing and varieties. Decreased days to attain anthesis and physiological maturity, product weight, product harvest index and vegetative weight were found with all projected temperatures (viz. 1.30C, 2.90C and 5.20C in the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively) alone and also in combination with CO2 concentration at all levels for all the sowing dates and varieties. Weather parameters generated by WGEN were very close to observed weather in both the years. Weather parameters generated by WGEN and ClimGen were used for prediction of crop characters [i.e. product weight, product harvest index and vegetative weight], in which WGEN almost gave good results, so it can be recommended for (crop) modelling applications. With optimized package and practices in climate change scenario during the year 2050, days to attain anthesis and physiological maturity shifted almost by one week and product weight and vegetative weight increased by 403 kg/ha and 1088 kg/ha, respectively, over present package and practices. Advancing sowing period by almost one week i.e. 15th December sowing (mid-sown) resulted in higher yields under modified climate.
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Thesis-PhD
Keywords
Climate change, wheats, mitigation, foot hills, Himalayas, Mountain areas, sowing date, yield increases, meteorological factors, climatic factors