A study on vulnerability to agriculture in Kosi region of Bihar
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Date
2016-07
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Department of Agricultural Economics, BAU, Sabour
Abstract
Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Climate change and its impacts are well recognised today and it will affect either physical or biological system. Bihar is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability because vulnerability to climate change is closely related to poverty as the poor are least able to respond to climate change. To cope up with changes in the production system and virtual stagnation of the crop yield the present study on vulnerability to agriculture in Kosi region of Bihar was planned to examine the factors affecting vulnerability and their relationship.The study was also planned to construct vulnerability index and compare different districts of the delineated area in relation to vulnerability index.For this purpose a composite vulnerability index was developed, emphasizing on the three major components namely, (i) Exposure (ii) Sensitivity and (iii) Adaptive capacity. To derive the vulnerability index and draw meaningful inferences both the method of equal and unequal weight were employed. The four major factors of vulnerability were also taken into consideration to assess the temporal and spatialvulnerability. This includes the demographic factors, climatic factors, agricultural factors and occupational factors.Quantitative assessment of vulnerability is usually done by constructing ‘vulnerability index’. To construct and compare the vulnerability indices the periodfrom1976-2015 was subdivided into 4 parts i.e. from 1976-1985, 1986-1995, 1996-2005 and 2006-2015. It means spatial as well as temporal vulnerability was also quantified. For the construction of vulnerability index,simple average score method, Patnaik and Narayanan Method by giving equal weight towards the variable. However, Iyengar and Sudarsan’s method and Expert judgement methodwas also used to construct the vulnerability indices. Next two methods was mainly based on giving unequal weight towards the indicators. It is because some parameters influenced more to the vulnerability and vice-versa. For identification of indicators as well as their relationship between them trend and pattern of different factors like agriculture, climatic, demographic and occupational factors of eight districts were undertaken for the same andresult revealed that those factors falling under sensitive was positively related , however the factors responsible for adaptive capacity were negatively related with vulnerability.The results of investigation revealed that, in the year 1976-1985 the district of Kishanganj ranked first and the district of Araria ranked last (8th ) in the overall vulnerability to climate change.As for contribution of sources wasconcerned, the agricultural sector played a significant role in ranking Kishanganj district at the first position by contributing to the tune 34.67 per cent to the overall vulnerability followed by occupational 28.96 per cent, climatic 22.45 per cent, and demographic factors 13.92 per cent.From the period 1986-1995, the district of Kishanganj ranked first in the overall vulnerability to climate change amongst all the selected districts of the region replacing Khagaria district to the second position, followed by Purnea district at the third. In the year 1996-2005, Khagaria district retained its first position with demographic and agricultural indicators being major contributors towards the overall vulnerability to climate change. The values of vulnerability indices varied from 0.30 (Madhepura) to 0.59 (Kishanganj) in 1996-2005 indicating that there was a wide variability in the factors influencing climate change. In the year 2006-2015, the district of Supaul replaced Kishanganj from the first position with reference to overall vulnerability to climate change.Data pertaining to sensitivity component was concerned, that due to reoccurrences of flood leads to damage to the crops or livestock population was found maximum in Kisanganj (21.954) district followed by Araria (21.896) and Purnea (20.882). It implies that Kisanganj was remain stand in first position with respect to sensitivity component of vulnerability was concerned.On the basis of the degree of vulnerabilitythe Kisanganj districtwas again placed under highly vulnerable district,however the district of Supaul, Saharsa, Madhepura, Purnea and Khagaria were placed under moderate vulnerability whose degree of vulnerability varied from 28.42-73.14and the district of Araria was considered as least vulnerable district amongst all the selected district under study so far. Its range of vulnerability was varied from ≤ 28.58.Therefore climate change policies have to be integrated with sustainable development strategy such as social control, pollution control, as well as emphasis towards regional crop planning for most vulnerable district of Kosi region of Bihar.Since the worst sufferers of climate change impacts are the rural communities, (who depends mainly on agriculture as their livelihoods), it is important to focus on the impacts of climate change on livelihoods, and re-establish the links among poverty, livelihood and environment. However, focusing on the communities only are not enough, and so long as the community initiatives do not become part of the government policies, it is difficult to sustain the efforts. Thus, the link between local, state and national governments to the community is of utmost importance.
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