DYNAMICS OF PULSE PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN INDIA
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Date
2016
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Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University
Abstract
The domestic demand of pulses is very high therefore the escalating population leads reduction in per capita availability. Demand projection of Pulses is 22 million tonnes and 25mmillion tonnes in 2016-17 and in 2020-21, respectively. It is a very challenging to overcome the demand scenario with poor productivity level and stagnant production. With this context that present study entitled “Dynamics of pulse production and trade in India” was carried out. The present study made use of information available through secondary sources. The time series data were procured from Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Agricultural Marketing Information Network (AGMARKNET), Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), India Meteorological Department (IMD). For measuring direction of trade markov chain analysis and for competitiveness nominal protection coefficients (NPC) were estimated. Markov chain analysis was used to evaluate the dynamic nature of trade pattern by examining the gains and losses in export share of major importing countries by transitional probability matrix. For the estimation of NPC the world reference prices are derived by dividing the value of exports by their respective quantities (Sharma, 2008) to make it unit value and same in case of import. The domestic price selection is represented
by the monthly average of highest arrival market prices to construct it as annual price. The trend of trade (export and import) of pulses demonstrated increasing trend. However, import trend was increasing with high intensity and magnitude than export trend of pulses during 1981to 2013. Among major traded pulses only lentil demonstrated declining export trend during 2000 to 2014. Export trend was not coordinated with import trend because of high domestic consumption of pulses and supply bottlenecks. The trend of domestic price demonstrated increasing trend in all pulses and gram experienced least price coefficient (149.8) which reflects the gradual increment in prices. The prices of pulses were also increasing significantly in global scenario. Among chick pea, pigeon pea and lentil, the highest price coefficient was observed in pigeon pea in Myanmar. Hence, it reflects that pigeon pea has been experiencing colossal international demand.
Indian Pulses though its share is declining, followed by Pakistan (55 per cent) as a new emerging trade partner. The United Kingdom and Gulf countries are the other most loyal countries of Indian pulses. Besides, other new trade partners are emerging such as Egypt and Turkey. It shows that India has a huge opportunity in international market. Price competitiveness of pulses: by the average of NPC in exportable hypothesis only gram and moong had price competitiveness and export worthy pulses since 2001 to 2014. With high average NPC under importable hypothesis gram, lentil and moong all were not competitive enough for import substitution. Or they were mild import substitutable as compare to imported pulses.
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Keywords
Dynamics, pulse production, trade, India