Growth pattern and production projection for maize crop in madhya pradesh
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Date
2014
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Publisher
JNKVV
Abstract
ABSTRACT
The productivity of maize crop in Madhya Pradesh compared to other maize growing state and the country as a whole in the recent time is very low being one of the maize growing states. Looking at the overall problem of maize production, its potential and future requirement, it is pertinent to study its growth pattern in the state and make projection for future production. The research entitled “Growth Pattern and Production Projection for maize crop in Madhya Pradesh” was carried out to study growth pattern, contribution of area and yield towards maize production, production projection and adjustment in cropping pattern and to make recommendations. The growth pattern of maize crop was estimated by computing the relative change, coefficient of variation and simple growth rate. Projection was made by the use of ARIMA model, contribution of area and yield towards maize production was done by decomposition analysis and adjustment in cropping pattern was estimated by calculating index level.
The study revealed that relative change and coefficient of variation of area, production and productivity are -6.43, -0.28, 6.38, 2.98, 20.75 and 19.65 respectively. Growth of area, production and productivity overtime were found to be -0.19, 0.28 and 0.48 respectively. It was also revealed that area contributed 19.68 percent and yield, 78.52 percent towards maize production in the current year over the base year. Forecast result showed that maximum value of area is 843.0 thousand hectares which would be expected in 2013-14 while minimum value is 826.0 thousand hectares which is likely to occur by the year 2025-26. Production forecast revealed maximum value of 1407.0 thousand tons which would be expected by 2025-26 and the minimum value of 1181.0 thousand tons in 2012-13. According to the data, maize crop is sufficiently and tolerably adjusted in the cropping pattern which means there is possibility of further increase in maize production in the state which can be achieved by bringing more industries for production of maize based products. The extension service delivery system must also be improved in order to achieve the desired results.
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Keywords
fruits, cloning, area, yields, chlorophylls, diseases, photosynthesis, inorganic compounds, biological development, concentrates