Statistical Model for the Estimation and Projection of Agriculture Share in India’s Gross Domestic Product
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Date
2022-10
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Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Jammu
Abstract
An investigation titled “Statistical Models for the Estimation and Projection of Agriculture Share in India’s Gross Domestic Product” was conducted with the objectives: To analyse the Gross Domestic Product of India through time series models and to assess statistically the estimation and projection of agricultural components in Gross Domestic Product. India is an agricultural-based economy with more than 52.6 percent of land area that is considered arable. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Agriculture and allied sectors has been declining since 1991 and is at 18.8 per cent in the present scenario. The secondary data of the GDP has been used for this study. The data on time series pertains to GDP and individual GDP components that are Agriculture, Livestock, Food processing industries, and Forestry, been collected from different reports published by different Government Offices like Economic Survey, NitiAayog Report, Food and Agriculture Organization Report and MOSPI. The estimation and projection of models have been done by using the techniques through ARIMA, Baysian, Correlation, Regression, and Stepwise regression. The results of the studyrevealed a huge fluctuation in the economy in the past two decades within the last seven decades. The ADF test for the stationarity of the data was tested which failed so to handle the problem differences 1,2 and 3 were applied. The 2nd degree of differences was selected as it showed the least deviation and was significant (ADF test) for the time series model. The best-proposed model was ARIMA (1,2,1). The forecasted value of GDP for 2029-30 is ₹376.07 lakh crores with a lower CL (0.95) value of ₹326.14 lakh crores and upper CL (0.95) value of ₹426.01 lakh crore. Similarly, the forecasted values of GDP for 2039-40 and 2046-47 are ₹543.71 lakh crores and ₹686.87 lakh crores with a lower CL (0.95) value of Rs.428.51 lakh crores and ₹509.81 lakh crores and upper CL (0.95) value of Rs.658.92 lakh crores and Rs.863.92 lakh crores respectively. Further, the data pertains to GDP (Endogenous) and Agriculture, FPI, Food processing and Livestock (Exogenous) were found to be reliable and Normal. The main component significantly were Agriculture and FPI for enhancing the FPI sector for boosting the Indian GDP in addition to this Bayesian estimation the maximum posterior probability for increasing the GDP will be through agriculture and FPI. As per the assessment of GDP, the interaction between Agriculture with Forestry, FPI and Livestock are 70.08 perc ent, 67.66 per cent and 65.25 per cent respectively. In the coming years, FPI and Forestry will contribute more to the GDP as compared to Livestock
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Citation
Preferred for your work: Sharma, A. 2022. Statistical Model for the Estimation and Projection of Agriculture Share in India’s Gross Domestic Product. SKUAST – JAMMU, Chatha, India