Market Intelligence with Reference to Price Behaviour of Major Foodgrains in Rajasthan
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Date
2013
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MPUAT, Udaipur
Abstract
The research study entitled "Market intelligence with reference to price behaviour of major foodgrains in Rajasthan” aimed to study magnitude and extent of fluctuations in the farm prices, seasonal behaviour, price forecast, market integration and market concentration of major foodgrains (bajra, maize, moong, moth, jawor, barley, gram, wheat) of Rajasthan. The secondary time series data covering the period from 2002 to 2012 and primary data for the period 2011-12 were analyzed to achieve the stated objectives.
The farm harvest prices of all selected six crops recorded a positive price variation from 86.67 to 100.0 percent and negative price variation in three crops from 6.67 to 13.33 percent for a period of 15 years i.e. 1995-2009 with the base year as 1995. Farm harvest prices of barley, gram and wheat have shown positive changes in all the 15 years in respective markets. As against this, farm harvest prices of bajra and sorghum have shown positive price variation in 13 years and negative price variation in 2 years. The gross increase in annual farm harvest prices of maize, bajra and sorghum during the period 1995-97 to 2007-09 increased by 205.21, 206.85 and 192.25 percent, respectively. Whereas the increase in FHP of gram, wheat and barley in selected districts was 234.52,228.81 and 225.84 percent during the same period. The farm harvest prices of maize, bajra, barley, gram, wheat and sorghum crops increased at a linear growth rate of 33.72, 28.93,41.86,104.99, 45.81 and 34.83 per cent per annum, respectively in the selected markets. The trend eliminated CV values for crops having significant price trend remained within the range for all the selected crops. Even the trend eliminated CV for the maize and bajra was found to be 15.40 percent and 20.35 percent, respectively. Similarly the trend eliminated CV for sorghum and barley was 20.40 and 15.18 percent. For the major rabi crops i.e. wheat and gram, the trend eliminated CV within the acceptable range i.e 9.93 percent and 13.83 percent. Further, the CVs of detrended value were less than the original value. The instability was more in original value rather than detrended value for all the crops.
The analysis of seasonal behaviour in maize, bajra, sorghum, moong and moth was apparently show that the period from October to December has accounted maximum arrivals (more than 100 indices) in the selected markets and lower values of indices were observed during the period from January to September indicated lean period for all selected kharif crops in selected markets. Higher indices (more than 100) of market arrivals of wheat, barley and gram were noticed immediately after the harvest (March-April) in selected markets. The highest values of price indices were observed during lean arrivals months of June to August and in remaining months prices were moderate in selected markets. For rabi crops, the values of higher price indices (more than 100) were found in the months of October- February probably due to very low arrivals, while that of the lowest price indices were found during post harvest months (March-May) in selected market. The highest coefficient of average seasonal price variation (ASPV) was recorded in Ajmer (17.58 %) for sorghum and lowest in Sriganganagar market (7.18 %) for wheat. Maximum value of the coefficient of variation for moong was observed in Sumerpur (67.71%) market, followed by moth (52.54 % in Churu markets), Sorghum (35.29% in Ajmer market) and Gram (34.66 in Bikaner market) and minimum for wheat (25.9% in Sriganganagar market) followed by barley (28.18%), bajra (28.91%) and maize (29.93%) in selected markets. Moong and moth pulses were more instable in terms of prices where as wheat crop observed relatively more stable in the selected market.
The prices of selected commodities were forecasted by using ARIMA, ANN and smoothing exponential models using the 10 years monthly average wholesale prices data. The validity of the forecasted values of bajra, maize, moong, moth, barley, gram, sorghum and wheat were checked by comparing them with their actual values during the post sample forecast period. The accuracy percentage between the forecasted and actual value of all selected foodgrain crops were found 80 to 98 per cent. Finally ARIMA model was found to be the best forecasting model by producing minimum value of MAPE and MSE for bajra, maize, moth, barley, gram, sorghum and wheat in selected market and ANN model was found to be the best in moong price forecasting. This proved that ARIMA (1,1,1) models for bajra, maize, barley and wheat; ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (0,1,1) and ARIMA (1,1,2) for moth, gram and sorghum, respectively and ANN model for moong were found to be the most appropriate model for forecasting the prices of selected foodgrains. Analysis of zero order correlation showed that there existed a strong integration among all the selected markets of wheat and gram. The results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test for wheat and gram showed that the existing data were non-stationary but their first differences were stationary. Johansen’s co-integration test for wheat indicated the presence of at least four co-integrating equation and for gram at least five co-integrating equation at 5per cent level of significance. Hence markets were having long run equilibrium relationship. The results of Granger Causality Test depicted that most of the markets had bidirectional influences on wheat and gram prices. These markets affected by prices of each other. The volatility in price of wheat and gram was not observed in any selected market. The market competitiveness in most of the markets was moderate to high as the arrivals were concentrated among few large traders.
Description
Market Intelligence with Reference to Price Behaviour of Major Foodgrains in Rajasthan
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Citation
Sharma and Burark, 2013