VAUDATION OF FAO MODEL FOR CROP MONITORING AND YIELD FORECASTING FOR KHARIF CROP ( PEARL MILLET )

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Date
1991-07-04
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MAHATMA PHULE AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY Rahuri, Diet. Ahmednagar ( Maharashtra, India )
Abstract
The study on validation of FAO model for crop monitoring and yield forecasting can be a very useful tool to identify crop potential of dry farming tract. Hence, the study was undertaken in Solapur district for experimental research station Solapur, south Solapur and Akalkot regions. An attempt was made to find out moisture availability index as a tool to monitor crop growth. The regression equation between moisture availability index and yield was then developed which was used for forecasting the yield of pearl millet. The findings of the study revealed that the total water requirement of the crop for experimental fields ranged between 185 and 289 mm while for farmer's field it ranged between 209 and 306 mm. Crop growth was monitored on the basis of the moisture availability index, which showed a direct relationship with yield. Regression equations were developed to forecast yield of pearl millet, using moisture availability index as independent variable and yield as dependent variable. It showed that in the case of experimental research station, Solapur the equation was in the form of a reciprocal hyperbola with a multiple correlation coefficient of 0.7671 which accounted for 58.84% of total variations. In the case of south Solapur region, the regression equation was in the form of a parabola with a multiple correlation coefficient of 0.8201 which accounted for 67.21% of total variations and in the case of Akalkot region, the regression equation was in the form of a reciprocal hyperbola again which accounted for 86.29% of total variations. A simple correlation coefficient between moisture availability index and yield for experimental research station, Solapur south Solapur and Akalkot regions was found to be +0.625, 0.77 and +0.611 respectively, and the same was found to be significant at 5% level for all the regions except Akalkot region. The equatons developed have been tested with yield data for the year, 1988 which was not included in the development of equations. The agreement is found to be satisfactory. The equations for experimental research station, Solapur, south Solapur and Akalkot regions showed differences of -16, +22 and -25% respectively between observed and predicted yields.
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