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Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, Pusa

In the imperial Gazetteer of India 1878, Pusa was recorded as a government estate of about 1350 acres in Darbhanba. It was acquired by East India Company for running a stud farm to supply better breed of horses mainly for the army. Frequent incidence of glanders disease (swelling of glands), mostly affecting the valuable imported bloodstock made the civil veterinary department to shift the entire stock out of Pusa. A British tobacco concern Beg Sutherland & co. got the estate on lease but it also left in 1897 abandoning the government estate of Pusa. Lord Mayo, The Viceroy and Governor General, had been repeatedly trying to get through his proposal for setting up a directorate general of Agriculture that would take care of the soil and its productivity, formulate newer techniques of cultivation, improve the quality of seeds and livestock and also arrange for imparting agricultural education. The government of India had invited a British expert. Dr. J. A. Voelcker who had submitted as report on the development of Indian agriculture. As a follow-up action, three experts in different fields were appointed for the first time during 1885 to 1895 namely, agricultural chemist (Dr. J. W. Leafer), cryptogamic botanist (Dr. R. A. Butler) and entomologist (Dr. H. Maxwell Lefroy) with headquarters at Dehradun (U.P.) in the forest Research Institute complex. Surprisingly, until now Pusa, which was destined to become the centre of agricultural revolution in the country, was lying as before an abandoned government estate. In 1898. Lord Curzon took over as the viceroy. A widely traveled person and an administrator, he salvaged out the earlier proposal and got London’s approval for the appointment of the inspector General of Agriculture to which the first incumbent Mr. J. Mollison (Dy. Director of Agriculture, Bombay) joined in 1901 with headquarters at Nagpur The then government of Bengal had mooted in 1902 a proposal to the centre for setting up a model cattle farm for improving the dilapidated condition of the livestock at Pusa estate where plenty of land, water and feed would be available, and with Mr. Mollison’s support this was accepted in principle. Around Pusa, there were many British planters and also an indigo research centre Dalsing Sarai (near Pusa). Mr. Mollison’s visits to this mini British kingdom and his strong recommendations. In favour of Pusa as the most ideal place for the Bengal government project obviously caught the attention for the viceroy.

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  • ThesisItemOpen Access
    TREND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF CHICKPEA YIELD IN MUNGER DISTRICT (BIHAR) AND BILASPUR DISTRICT (CHHATTISGARH) USING NON LINEAR MODELS
    (DRPCAU, PUSA, 2022) PAIKRA, KALYAN SINGH; Kumar, Mahesh
    This study is done with objective of trend analysis of area, production and productivity of chickpea for Munger district (Bihar) and Bilaspur district (Chhattisgarh) and forecast is done on chickpea yield for these districts using some nonlinear models. For conducting this study, secondary time series data is obtained from official sites of directorate of Economics and Statistics of respective states and ICRISAT Hyderabad from time period of 1990-91 to 2019-20. For achieving objective, data from 1990-91 to 2018-19 are analysed while for validation, data from year 2019-20 is taken. The graphical method is used for trend analysis for area, production and yield under chickpea. Validation of trend is checked using correlation test by Pearson and Spearman test. Forecasting of chickpea yield is done with non linear model i.e., Monomolecular, Gompertz and Logistic model and OSAF is used for validation. Although, over the time there was too much fluctuation in actual data of area, production and productivity of chickpea over all it is found decreasing for area as well as production while increasing trend for productivity for Munger district as well as for Bilaspur district. Even Pearson and Spearman coefficients are highly significant with negative values for area and production while positive values for productivity. All non-linear models are fitted to data by using Statistical software R. After fitting non-linear models, models are compared by ten different statistics R2, R27 , R28 , RSS, MAPE, MAE, MSE, RMSE, RSE and MSE. nn. So, Logistic model is found better for forecasting chickpea yield for Munger district with FE% of 22 % and Gompertz is found better for Bilaspur district with FE% of 22.3 % than other two models. Selected models for Munger district (Bihar) and Bilaspur district (Chhattisgarh) are given by Ŷ =1.16982/ (1 +(1.16982/0.60629-1) *exp(-0.10993*t)) (Munger district) Ŷ =1.12087*exp(log(0.44693/1.12087)*exp(-0.0532*t)) (Bilaspur district)