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20202
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Subject: Agricultural Statistics and Informatics × End date: 2020 × Start date: 2020 × Thesis Type: M.Sc ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    STRUCTURAL BREAK ANALYSIS OF RAPESEED AND MUSTARD PRODUCTION IN JORHAT DISTRICT OF ASSAM
    (AAU, Jorhat, 2020-10) BARUAH, SUJATA; Paswan, R. P.
    Oilseed crops play a vital role in the Indian agricultural economy and so does in any parts of Assam in terms of area and production. Rapeseed and mustard production in Jorhat have increased from 7817 tonnes in 2012-13 to 9118 tonnes in 2013-14 and then decreased to 8129 tonnes in 2014-15. This reflects the structural change in the economy of the district. The present study is performed to determine the exact time of the structural break in the rapeseed and mustard production, followed by the identification of the factors affecting the crop’s production and finally by examining the presence of cointegration between the crop productivity and the various variables under investigation. The data collected for the study pertained to the annual time series of area, production, productivity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total rainfall, bright sunshine hours, and wind speed for the periods 1988-89 to 2014-2015. The results of the structural break analysis reveal that the variables for the crop are non-stationary at levels, indicating the existence of structural breaks. The production of rapeseed and mustard is found to have breaks in the years 1995-96 and 1996-97. Amongst all the factors under investigation, the area is found to have a significant effect on the production of the crop in Jorhat district of Assam. This implies that increasing the land area in the study location may increase the production of the crop in the same place. Johansen’s cointegration test was used to check for the presence of the cointegration between the variables under the crop. It is concluded that the variables in the model are cointegrated. This is followed by the employment of the Vector Equilibrium Correction Model, finally proving the presence of a long-run relationship between the variables. It is found that minimum temperature has a negative relationship with the productivity of the crop whereas area and total rainfall have positive and significant short-run effects on the productivity of rapeseed and mustard crop in the study location.
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    CLASSIFYING THE STATES OF INDIA THROUGH RICE, WHEAT, AND GROUNDNUT USING STATISTICAL GRAPHICS
    (AAU, Jorhat, 2020-07) TSIGBEY, STANLEY TORNAM; Saikia, Hemanta
    India’s economy is mainly contingent on agriculture which accounts for 17-18 percent of India's gross domestic product (GDP) and provides sufficient employment to 50-60% of the total population. The India position in terms of rice, wheat, and groundnut production all over the world call for vital information on area, production, and productivity as well as agricultural states of India. In this study an effort has been made to classify the agriculture states of India using statistical graphics i.e. regression analysis and tri linear plot of the three selected major crops; rice, wheat, and groundnut. And in order to do that the 50 years data (1966-2016) trend of area, production, and productivity of the various crops are converted into index number. Thereafter a scatter plot is depicted considering ‘area index’ as an independent variable and ‘productivity index’ as a dependent variable and then a linear regression line is being fitted along with confidence band for classification of the states. Tri-linear plot was considered as one of the graphics in classifying the states where the indices values of the three variables (area, production, productivity) were first brought within the range 0 to 1. Afterwards percentage contributions of each of the three variables are taken where the total of the three variables sum to unity (100%) and are represented as one point on a triangular diagram. The study reveals that some states recorded less productivity despite of being adequate increasing area trend and some states also shown productivity increased with decreased area. The classification of Indian states is to provide essential information to the planners and policymakers responsible for designing efficient agricultural policies, and for making significant decisions concerning resources allocation for the development of agricultural sector in the various states.