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Subject: Agricultural Statistics and Informatics × Author: Saikia, Dikhita × End date: 2023 × Start date: 2020 ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    A STATISTICAL STUDY ON THE GROWTH OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ON INDIAN ECONOMY WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO ASSAM
    (AAU, Jorhat, 2021) Saikia, Dikhita; Mahanta, Supahi
    Agriculture contributes significantly to India's productivity and employment as well as that of Assam, which is predominantly agricultural and overpopulated. Agriculture production in the state is below the national average. Knowledge of productivity trends of major crops is critical in various decision-making plans for the benefit of farmers. Several methods are used to calculate income of a state, the most important of which is Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). Assam's GSDP growth rate is critical for assessing the state of the economy. As a major component of a state's GDP, the agricultural growth rate should be prioritized in order to increase farmer income and the per capita income of Assam's rural community. Keeping the aforementioned facts in mind, the present study was planned with the objectives: To study the trends and prospects of the productivity of the major crops and its contribution to GSDP of Assam; To study the growth of agricultural GDP versus total GDP growth rate in the state; Modeling of the economic growth rate of the agricultural sector in the state; Forecasting of GSDP with time series models. The data pertaining to the study were based on secondary data for the period of 31 years (1990 to 2020). From the results it was observed that rice, jute, rapeseed and mustard had a significant increasing trend in productivity. About 95.14 per cent of the variation in the GSDP of Assam was explained by the production of the six major crops viz. rice, jute, wheat, potato, sugarcane, rapeseed and mustard. Agricultural GSDP contributed a large percentage of total GSDP during the nineteenth century. It was found that total GSDP had a higher growth rate than agricultural GSDP growth rate but Agricultural GSDP had the highest standard deviation, indicating greatest variability in growth rate. By comparing the results of the Solow Growth model to actual data, a very close relationship was discovered between the actual (11.28 per cent) and calculated (12.13 per cent) average growth rates from 1990 to 2020. The four stages of the Box-Jenkins approach were used to create an appropriate ARIMA model for Assam's GSDP, which later used to forecast Assam's GSDP for the next ten years (from 2020 to 2030). Based on the forecasted values from our model, we expect Assam's GSDP continue to rise.