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Subject: Agricultural Statistics and Informatics × Author: Prasad, Arun × End date: 2016 × Start date: 2016 × Type: Thesis × Thesis Type: Ph.D ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    FORECASTING MODELS FOR CHARACTERIZING PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF COCONUT AND RUBBER IN KERALA
    (AAU, Jorhat, 2016-07) Prasad, Arun; Phukan, S. N.
    India is the third largest country in terms of global area and production of coconut after Philippines and Indonesia. Kerala was traditionally a coconut growing area along with the coastal states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. During 1974-75 Kerala had accounted for about 62 per cent of the coconut production in India and by 2003-04 Kerala’s share had declined to about 49 per cent. Natural Rubber cultivation in India has been traditionally concentrated in Kerala and to some extent in the adjoining states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The agro-climatic conditions in the state were very favourable for rubber cultivation. Kerala accounts for 83 per cent of the area under rubber in the country. The present study has analyzed the production and productivity of coconut and rubber in India with special reference to Kerala. In the case of Kerala, all the fourteen districts have been selected for making a detailed study. The scope of the study is limited to only two places – Coconut Development Board, Kochi for coconut and Rubber Development Board, Kottayam for rubber. For forecasting the production and productivity of coconut and rubber, the study is restricted to fourteen districts in Kerala. In the present investigation of production and productivity behavior for coconut and rubber was analyzed by different forecasting models and their statistical evaluation would provide insight into the reasons for variation with the following objectives: 1. To study the trend for production and productivity of coconut and rubber in Kerala and forecast using time series models. 2. To study the effect of error in forecasting models for coconut and rubber. 3. To validate accuracy of model and suggest suitable forecasting model using time series for production and productivity of coconut and rubber. The major purpose of studies on forecast accuracy is to help the forecasters in selecting best forecasting method. In the present investigation different forecasting models like Trend analysis, ANN model, ARIMA model and Exponential smoothing models are considered to produce forecast and to measure the forecast accuracy among selected different models. In the present study, forecasting excise was conducted to produce yearly production and productivity forecasts for future five years using selected methods for years 2012-2016 in case of rubber and 2015-2019 for coconut. It is hoped that the identification of the best forecasting model would help the producers as well as consumers in taking appropriate decisions. The production and productivity obtained in coconut and rubber found to be increasing for various reasons, notably due to the fluctuations in climate, extent of area, prices etc. The change in life style has also resulted in the increased demand which yields its significant influence on production and productivity of coconut and rubber in Kerala.