Loading...
Thesis
Browse
52 results
Search Results
ThesisItem Open Access MAPPING OF GROUNDWATER RECHARGE POTENTIAL ZONES OF OZAT RIVER BASIN 3427(JAU,JUNAGADH, 2021-09) RAKSHIT NILESHKUMAR VASOYA; Prof. P. B. VekariyaThe Ozat river basin is located in the southern Saurashtra region of Gujarat, India. The Ozat river basin covers an area of 3176.24 km2 and flows radially through the plains for 127.97 kilometres to run into the Arabian Sea. Since the area falls under semi-arid climatic conditions, there is a need to construct more groundwater recharge structures to augment the groundwater recharge. Hence, in this study, an attempt has been made to demarcate the groundwater recharge potential zones, propose suitable groundwater recharge structures (check dams, farm ponds, open wells, and tube wells) as wells as soil conservation structures (vegetative barrier & tree plantation, contour trench & staggered trench, and gully plug & gabion structure), and estimate the project cost in specific areas. Remote sensing and Geographical Information System were used to identify the groundwater recharge potential zones considering parameters such as Geology, Geomorphology, Lineament Density, Drainage Density, Soil, Rainfall, Slope, Land use/ land cover. Suitable weights to the thematic layers and their features were assigned and normalized by the use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process. All the thematic layers were integrated into the ArcGIS environment using the weighted overlay method. The groundwater recharge potential zones were classified into 5 different zones of 'Excellent' (220.14 km2 , 6.93%), 'Good' (2094.81km2 , 65.95%), 'Moderate' (430.05 km2 , 13.54%), 'Poor' (430.81 km2 , 13.57%), and 'Very Poor' (0.36 km2 , 0.01%) based on their recharge potential. The SCS-CN technique was used to estimate the rainfall-runoff potential. The weighted average rainfall and runoff of the Ozat river basin were observed to be 835.08 mm and 383.80 mm respectively. The total runoff of the Ozat river basin was estimated to be 1219.03 MCM. Natural groundwater ii recharge from precipitation was estimated using an empirical equation suitable for the Saurashtra region and representing 204.53 MCM. The total groundwater recharge and project cost were estimated against the various density of structures. After conducting probability analysis, it is suggested to construct the groundwater recharge structures at the density 61.72%, 49.24%, and 20.87% for the 60%, 75% and 90%. At 60% probability of exceedance, 61.72% of structure density is suggested to recharge the runoff volume of 764.72 MCM, it’s estimated project cost is Rs. 653.86 crores. In the case of 75% probability of exceedance, 49.24% of the structure density is proposed to recharge the runoff volume of 610.18 MCM, it’s estimated project cost is Rs. 521.73 crores. While in the case of 90% probability of exceedance, 20.87% of the structure density is proposed to recharge the runoff volume of 258.54 MCM, it’s estimated project cost is Rs. 221.06 croreThesisItem Open Access ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD RISK VULNERABILITY OF VISHWAMITRI RIVER BASIN USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS 3459(JAU JUNAGADH, 2022-04) PATEL CHARMIBEN ATULKUMAR; Prof. V. K. Sardhara; 2050219012Floods are the most common natural disaster in the world. Flooding is expected to become more common in the future, according to studies. Once the risk assessment for the area has been completed precisely, flood mitigation solutions, which comprise both structural and non-structural measures, can be selected efficiently. A review of flood risk assessment approaches is presented in this work, which considers flood risk as a function of flood hazard and vulnerability. In this study, some of the most widely used approaches for assessing flood hazard, flood vulnerability, and flood risk, including multi criteria decision making tools, GIS, and remote sensing, are examined. Climate change, unplanned rapid urbanisation, inefficient watershed management, and reduced infiltration into groundwater due to the development of impermeable surfaces in metropolitan areas are all likely to make floods more severe and frequent in the future. Even while natural variables such as climate change might be blamed for the increased likelihood of floods, we cannot ignore the anthropogenic elements, which are the most important qualities. An increase in the frequency of floods has resulted in significant losses, including human lives, property and infrastructure damage, and environmental harm. The study was formulated by keeping in view three objectives like to perform geomorphic analysis of the Vishwamitri river basin adapting remote sensing and GIS technique, to prepare flood risk map for identifying flood-prone area applying multi criteria decision-making tool with GIS and to propose plans or strategies for flood risk management. The flood risk map is a crucial tool for decision-makers to consider possible defensive measures, betteThesisItem Open Access ESTIMATION OF WATER HARVESTING AND GROUNDWATER RECHARGE POTENTIAL OF DHATARWADI RIVER BASIN USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS 3307(JAU JUNAGADH, 2021-08) JAYSWAL PRITI SURYANATHPRASAD; N. K. Gontia; (Registration No. J4-01544-2014)Morphometric analysis of the Dhatarwadi river basin revealed that, it is found to be a 6th order drainage basin in its youth stage having dendentric type drainage pattern in most of the area, which is free from the influence of the geological structure. The basin is having near about flat terrain with small hillocks/inselbergs and elongated in shape along with high permeable subsoil material under dense vegetative cover indicating low to moderate runoff potential of the basin. There are 13 milli-watersheds in Dhatarwadi river basin, having 3rd to 5th order drainage network. The milli watersheds are showing moderate to less structural disturbance, high permeable geology, good vegetation cover, high infiltration, low runoff and less soil erosion condition. All the 13 milli-watersheds are more or less elongated in shape and have low to high relief. Among 13 milli-watersheds, the milli-watershed: 5G1D4d should be prioritized first for applying soil and water conservation measures followed by 5G1D4e, 5G1D4h, 5G1D4k, 5G1D4j, 5G1D4g, 5G1D4c, 5G1D4b, 5G1D4a, 5G1D4i, 5G1D4l, 5G1D4m, 5G1D4f as they ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th , 11th, 12th and 13th ranking in priority analysis. In this study, to estimate surface runoff potential, 16 years of weather and discharge data along with SRTM DEM imagery, soil maps, land use/cover map and slope map were used as primary inputs for SWAT model. The weather and discharge data were divided into calibration period (year 2002 to 2011) and validation period (year 2013 to 2017). The global sensitivity analysis for the study area highlighted that CN2, SOL_BD, GW_Delay and RCHARG_DP.gw were found as sensitive parameters. Based on SWAT model runoff simulation, the average annual precipitation of 680.94 mm could generate 217.75 mm (186.4 MCM) runoff. Groundwater recharge for the study area were estimated using Water Table Fluctuation method, Krishna Rao (1970), Athavale (2003), Maheta & Rank (2017), Kumar & Seethapathi (2002), developed linear models; Model I, Model II and non-linear; Model III during year 2002 to 2017. The linear empirical model II (R2 = 0.828) for ground water recharge estimation performed well than empirical model I and III during calibration period (year 2003 – 2011). During validation period (year 2013 – 2017) the non-linear empirical model III performed well with 0.848 R2 value. Data shown that the overall iv mean groundwater recharge in the Dhatarwadi river basin was estimated to be 15.09 % (87.61 MCM) of the mean annual rainfall. Groundwater recharge estimation formulae i.e. Athavale (2003), Maheta and Rank (2017), developed Model I and Model II were found perfectly positively correlated to each other. The non-linear empirical model for the ground water recharge in the Dhatarwadi river basin is proposed as; R= 0.037(P-20)1.17 . For water harvesting site selection, AHP generated weight for criteria were 36.1%, 20.6%, 18.6 %, 13.1 % and 11.7 % for rainfall, land use/land cover, soil texture, lineament density and slope, respectively. In study area, 66.79 % area found very high suitable, 24.89 % highly suitable, 5.63 % moderately suitable, 0.88 % less suitable and remaining 1.81 % area found not suitable for water harvesting sites. 25 sites for check dam on scrubland, 52 check dam sites on crop land and 11 check dams on river bed were possible sites identified within the Dhatarwadi river basin. 29 farm pond sites were identified within the Dhatarwadi river basin.ThesisItem Open Access MAPPING OF GROUNDWATER RECHARGE POTENTIAL ZONES OF OZAT RIVER BASIN 3427(JAU,JUANAGDH, 2021-10) RAKSHIT NILESHKUMAR VASOYA; . P. B. VekariyaThe Ozat river basin is located in the southern Saurashtra region of Gujarat, India. The Ozat river basin covers an area of 3176.24 km2 and flows radially through the plains for 127.97 kilometres to run into the Arabian Sea. Since the area falls under semi-arid climatic conditions, there is a need to construct more groundwater recharge structures to augment the groundwater recharge. Hence, in this study, an attempt has been made to demarcate the groundwater recharge potential zones, propose suitable groundwater recharge structures (check dams, farm ponds, open wells, and tube wells) as wells as soil conservation structures (vegetative barrier & tree plantation, contour trench & staggered trench, and gully plug & gabion structure), and estimate the project cost in specific areas. Remote sensing and Geographical Information System were used to identify the groundwater recharge potential zones considering parameters such as Geology, Geomorphology, Lineament Density, Drainage Density, Soil, Rainfall, Slope, Land use/ land cover. Suitable weights to the thematic layers and their features were assigned and normalized by the use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process. All the thematic layers were integrated into the ArcGIS environment using the weighted overlay method. The groundwater recharge potential zones were classified into 5 different zones of 'Excellent' (220.14 km2 , 6.93%), 'Good' (2094.81km2 , 65.95%), 'Moderate' (430.05 km2 , 13.54%), 'Poor' (430.81 km2 , 13.57%), and 'Very Poor' (0.36 km2 , 0.01%) based on their recharge potential. The SCS-CN technique was used to estimate the rainfall-runoff potential. The weighted average rainfall and runoff of the Ozat river basin were observed to be 835.08 mm and 383.80 mm respectively. The total runoff of the Ozat river basin was estimated to be 1219.03 MCM. Natural groundwater ii recharge from precipitation was estimated using an empirical equation suitable for the Saurashtra region and representing 204.53 MCM. The total groundwater recharge and project cost were estimated against the various density of structures. After conducting probability analysis, it is suggested to construct the groundwater recharge structures at the density 61.72%, 49.24%, and 20.87% for the 60%, 75% and 90%. At 60% probability of exceedance, 61.72% of structure density is suggested to recharge the runoff volume of 764.72 MCM, it’s estimated project cost is Rs. 653.86 crores. In the case of 75% probability of exceedance, 49.24% of the structure density is proposed to recharge the runoff volume of 610.18 MCM, it’s estimated project cost is Rs. 521.73 crores. While in the case of 90% probability of exceedance, 20.87% of the structure density is proposed to recharge the runoff volume of 258.54 MCM, it’s estimated project cost is Rs. 221.06 crores.ThesisItem Open Access TECHNO-ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF SOLAR PUMP USING SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE DRIP FERTIGATION IN BRINJAL (Solanum melongena L.) CROP(JAU,JUANAGDH, 2020-10) GEVARIYA SIDDHARTH ATULKUMAR; Dr. H. D. RankA field experiment was conducted to study the techno-economic evaluation of solar pump using surface and subsurface drip fertigation in brinjal (Solanum Melongena L.) crop during November 2019 to April 2020. The solar photovoltaic pumping system was having solar panel area of 28.8 sqm, power capacity of 4.8 kw and 3.73 kw AC submersible pump. The brinjal crop response to surface and subsurface drip irrigation having fertigation level of 60%, 80% and 100% RDF were assessed and compared with that of with farmers practices. The brinjal crop was transplanted at 0.6 r/r x 1.2 pr/pr x 0.6 m p/p spacing. The drip system were having inline lateral of 4 lph dripper at 0.6 m spacing. The each lateral was kept at 1.8 m spacing, each one served a pair of rows. The irrigation was scheduled at IW/ETc of 1.0. The maximum of monthly average WHP was produced as 2.20 hp at 01:00 pm in April. Total input radiation was found varying from 378 W/m2 to 828 W/m2 during a day time of 9 am to 5 pm. During the same interval, the discharge of solar pump was found from 2.49 lps to 4.75 lps. The panel efficiency of the 4.8 kw solar photovoltaic system was found varying from 10.19% to 17.95% while the system efficiency was found in the range of 3.69% to 7.78%. Approximate area of 1.32 ha brinjal crop can be cultivated under drip irrigation using solar photovoltaic pumping system (4.8 kw having 28.8 sqm solar panel & 3.73 kw pump) with drip irrigation. The maximum yield of brinjal was found to be 37940 kg/ha under subsurface drip irrigation with 80% RDF, while in surface drip irrigation it was found 33558 kg/ha with 100% RDF. There was a saving in 29.53% irrigation water and 20% fertilizer through irrigation and fertigation by sub surface drip system as compared to farmer’s practice. The maximum benefit cost ratio of 9.07 was found under subsurface drip irrigation with 80% RDFThesisItem Open Access MORPHOMETRIC AND HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS OF BHADAR BASIN OF GUJARAT USING REMOTE SENSING & GIS TECHNIQUES, 2801(JAU, JUNAGADH, 2019-01) KELAIYA JAINISH HIMANSHUBHAI; H. D. RankThe natural resources planning and management can be successful if it is based on the drainage basin scale. The feasible and viable techno-economic planning for the soil and water conservation requires the hydrologic response to climate and various land uses. Morphometric analysis of a drainage basin expresses fully the state of dynamic balance that has been attained due to dealings between matter and energy. Morphometric analysis based either in GIS environment or otherwise is a competent tool for geo-hydrological studies and are very useful for identifying and planning the groundwater potential zones and watershed management, including the whole gamut of natural resources connected with the watershed. It becomes necessary to understand the topography, erosion status and drainage patterns of the region. The SWAT model is the tool to assess the water balance components of the hydrological cycle like rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge under given land use, management and climate. The runoff and groundwater recharge assessment are very useful for the water resources development and planning. This study was undertaken for the Bhadar River basin divided into 16 watersheds and total drainage area of 7330.40 km2 . Morphometric analysis, such as linear, aerial and relief aspects of the Bhadar River basin has been done with the help of remote sensing and GIS techniques. The climatic, discharge and sediment yield data were divided into calibration period (1981-2000) and validation period (2001- 2010). The climatic and discharge data, sediment data, SRTM-DEM imagery, soil maps and land use/cover classification from LISS IV imagery are used as primary inputs for SWAT model. The SWAT model was used to assess the hydrologic response of the basin after sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation. In this study SWAT model was developed for sediment yield simulation at the outlet of the basin and this model applied to the every watersheds of basin for the estimation of sediment yield. The watershed prioritization was made using the morphometric parameters and sediment yield from all watersheds. The groundwater recharge was estimated using water table fluctuation and SWAT Model and compared. Hydrologic analysis is an analysis of interrelated components, including the processes of precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, infiltration, groundwater flow, streamflow, sediment yield etc., in addition to those structures and devices that are used to manage the hydrologic system. The capabilities of remote sensing and GIS techniques are explored in this study to simulate sediment yield in the basin. The ground water recharge was also estimated using empirical equations. Precipitation measured at 37 stations over 1981−2010 is used as an input dataset to establish hydrologic analysis. 30 years of climatic and discharge data along with different remote sensing imagery and soil map were also used. The empirical model was developed and proposed to assess the groundwater recharge using the seasonal rainfall data. The performance indices like NSE and goodness of fit were used in the modeling to assess the accuracy in the predictions. The river basin is designated as 7th order basin. The 1 st order streams are mostly dominating the basin. The moderate drainage density indicates that weak subsurface material and belongs to medium texture. The study reveals that the basin has less elongated to elongated shape and associated with steep ground slopes. The ranges of Rb are high as mean Rb of the basin is 5.38, and it has been characterized by the influences of underlying structures and lithology. Relief having a value of 0.303 km indicates low gravity of water flow as well as infiltration and high runoff conditions. The watershed 5G1B15 should be treated first while 5G1B4 at last. Highest priority indicates the greater degree of erosion in the particular watershed and it becomes potential candidate for applying soil conservation measures first. The developed soil theme map shows that clay and fine soil are dominating in the Bhadar river basin. The land use/cover analysis shows that agricultural land is dominating in the basin. The sediment yield obtained from different watershed using SWAT model also gives the same highest priority to watershed 5G1B15 having highest sediment yield among all watersheds. The performance of SWAT model is satisfactory in terms of different performance indices such as NSE and goodness of fit for calibration(NSE=64.6%, R2 =0.762) and validation(NSE=68.5%, R2 =0.798). SWAT model provides a better description of water balance of the watershed. The average annual rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration, percolation to shallow aquifer and recharge to deep aquifer in the basin are 569.3 mm, 197.19 mm, 244.6 mm, 111.64 mm and 5.58 mm respectively. The annual average runoff is 36.37% of the average annual rainfall. The average annual sediment yield during calibration and validation periods are 14.13 t/ha and 19.40 t/ha. Among the developed models, the non-linear empirical ground water recharge model as R = 1.642(P – 230.054)0.583 (with NSE=86.59%, where R and P are the seasonal groundwater recharge, mm for the seasonal rainfall amount, mm of P) was found best. Performance of SWAT, a physically based model and empirical models were compared to simulate the ground water recharge of the Bhadar river basin. The best fit empirical model performs better than and SWAT model (NSE = 74.94%, R2 =0.898).ThesisItem Open Access MORPHOMETRIC AND HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS OF BHADAR BASIN OF GUJARAT USING REMOTE SENSING & GIS TECHNIQUES 2801(JAU, JUNAGADH, 2019-01) KELAIYA JAINISH HIMANSHUBHAI; H. D. RankThe natural resources planning and management can be successful if it is based on the drainage basin scale. The feasible and viable techno-economic planning for the soil and water conservation requires the hydrologic response to climate and various land uses. Morphometric analysis of a drainage basin expresses fully the state of dynamic balance that has been attained due to dealings between matter and energy. Morphometric analysis based either in GIS environment or otherwise is a competent tool for geo-hydrological studies and are very useful for identifying and planning the groundwater potential zones and watershed management, including the whole gamut of natural resources connected with the watershed. It becomes necessary to understand the topography, erosion status and drainage patterns of the region. The SWAT model is the tool to assess the water balance components of the hydrological cycle like rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge under given land use, management and climate. The runoff and groundwater recharge assessment are very useful for the water resources development and planning. This study was undertaken for the Bhadar River basin divided into 16 watersheds and total drainage area of 7330.40 km2 . Morphometric analysis, such as linear, aerial and relief aspects of the Bhadar River basin has been done with the help of remote sensing and GIS techniques. The climatic, discharge and sediment yield data were divided into calibration period (1981-2000) and validation period (2001- 2010). The climatic and discharge data, sediment data, SRTM-DEM imagery, soil maps and land use/cover classification from LISS IV imagery are used as primary inputs for SWAT model. The SWAT model was used to assess the hydrologic response of the basin after sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation. In this study SWAT model was developed for sediment yield simulation at the outlet of the basin and this model applied to the every watersheds of basin for the estimation of sediment yield. The watershed prioritization was made using the morphometric parameters and sediment yield from all watersheds. The groundwater recharge was estimated using water table fluctuation and SWAT Model and compared. Hydrologic analysis is an analysis of interrelated components, including the processes of precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, infiltration, groundwater flow, streamflow, sediment yield etc., in addition to those structures and devices that are used to manage the hydrologic system. The capabilities of remote sensing and GIS techniques are explored in this study to simulate sediment yield in the basin. The ground water recharge was also estimated using empirical equations. Precipitation measured at 37 stations over 1981−2010 is used as an input dataset to establish hydrologic analysis. 30 years of climatic and discharge data along with different remote sensing imagery and soil map were also used. The empirical model was developed and proposed to assess the groundwater recharge using the seasonal rainfall data. The performance indices like NSE and goodness of fit were used in the modeling to assess the accuracy in the predictions. The river basin is designated as 7th order basin. The 1 st order streams are mostly dominating the basin. The moderate drainage density indicates that weak subsurface material and belongs to medium texture. The study reveals that the basin has less elongated to elongated shape and associated with steep ground slopes. The ranges of Rb are high as mean Rb of the basin is 5.38, and it has been characterized by the influences of underlying structures and lithology. Relief having a value of 0.303 km indicates low gravity of water flow as well as infiltration and high runoff conditions. The watershed 5G1B15 should be treated first while 5G1B4 at last. Highest priority indicates the greater degree of erosion in the particular watershed and it becomes potential candidate for applying soil conservation measures first. The developed soil theme map shows that clay and fine soil are dominating in the Bhadar river basin. The land use/cover analysis shows that agricultural land is dominating in the basin. The sediment yield obtained from different watershed using SWAT model also gives the same highest priority to watershed 5G1B15 having highest sediment yield among all watersheds. The performance of SWAT model is satisfactory in terms of different performance indices such as NSE and goodness of fit for calibration(NSE=64.6%, R2 =0.762) and validation(NSE=68.5%, R2 =0.798). SWAT model provides a better description of water balance of the watershed. The average annual rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration, percolation to shallow aquifer and recharge to deep aquifer in the basin are 569.3 mm, 197.19 mm, 244.6 mm, 111.64 mm and 5.58 mm respectively. The annual average runoff is 36.37% of the average annual rainfall. The average annual sediment yield during calibration and validation periods are 14.13 t/ha and 19.40 t/ha. Among the developed models, the non-linear empirical ground water recharge model as R = 1.642(P – 230.054)0.583 (with NSE=86.59%, where R and P are the seasonal groundwater recharge, mm for the seasonal rainfall amount, mm of P) was found best. Performance of SWAT, a physically based model and empirical models were compared to simulate the ground water recharge of the Bhadar river basin. The best fit empirical model performs better than and SWAT model (NSE = 74.94%, R2 =0.898).ThesisItem Open Access DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WITH LIMITED METEOROLOGICAL DATA 1987(JAU,JUNAGADH, 2015-05) VYAS KHYATIBEN NARENDRAKUMAR; Dr. R. SubbaiahReference evapotranspiration (ETo) determination is a key factor for water balance and irrigation scheduling. The FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation has been accepted universally for estimating of reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This method demands number of climatic parameters that are not always available in ungauged basin of India. The purpose of this work is to present the new empirical equation for daily, weekly and monthly estimation of ETo for study region, Junagadh (Gujarat), using limited number of readily available weather parameters and to be able to estimate ETo with a satisfactory degree of accuracy compared with Penman-Monteith estimations (FAO-56 PM). To attain these four approaches adopted. Temperature models with original coefficient were evaluated by comparing with FAG 56 PM method. If satisfactory accuracy is not attained by the models, they are evaluated with recalibrated coefficients to get accuracy of prediction at par with FAQ 56 PM. Regression based equation were developed as a function of different combination of agro meteorological variables to predict reference evapotranspiration. ANN was also used to know the principal components affecting the nonlinear ETo process.ThesisItem Open Access CROP PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT BASED ON RAINFALL AND EVAPOTIRANSPIRATION IN RAINFED AGRICULTURE 1826(JAU,JUNAGADH, 2014-03) Harpalsinh Gohil; Dr. G. R. SharmaRainfed agriculture is practiced under a wide variety of soil type, agro climate and rainfall condition ranging from 400 mm to 1600 mm per annum. Agriculture in rainfed region is characterized with risk and uncertainty. Inadequate rainfall and its uneven distribution along with frequent drought are the common features of rainfed regions. Saurashtra region falls under arid and semi - arid climate and receives rainfall through the South - West monsoon during June to September. Annual rainfall over different parts of Saurashtra region varies from 350 mm to 650 mm. Analysis of rainfall and other weather parameters helps to develop and modify the management practices for stabilizing the crop production in the rainfed ecosystem at certain level. Estimation of the magnitude and dur^fion of water deficit and surplus are vital important for planning crop and water management practices to promote crop production in dry land areas. Rainfall and other weather data are collected from Main Dry Farming Research Station, JAU, Targhadia (Rajkot), Rainfall data of 55 years (1958-2012) on weekly basis is analysed. Occurrence of rainfall at different probability levels is calculated using best fit distribution. The highest average rainfall (64.44mm) is observed during 27"' standard week and lowest (5.22nim) during 43''" standard week. The standard deviation during 29"' standard week is high (89.17mm). The coefficient of variability is obseiwed less than 150 per cent dunng 27"' standard week to 3D' standard week except 28"' standard week indicating better reliability, where as in other weeks it is observed more than 150 per cent. It is also obseiwed that MSW has 50 per cent initial probability of receiving more than 40 mm rainfall.
